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 THE STAT 26Percentage of wireless customers who use their cell phones to take picturesMore Vitals
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SEPTEMBER 4, 2003
21st Century Cars Hit the Road [Page 3 of 3] SIMPLER TRANSMISSIONS. Even if vehicles and engines simply stay the same size, new technology can cut average fuel consumption by one-third by 2020 and half by 2030, MIT's Heywood estimates. Hybrids and diesels will be an important factor. But most of the gains will come from wringing more efficiency out of gasoline engines. Next year, GM plans to start phasing in engines that use a technology called "displacement on demand," which cuts an engine's average fuel consumption by 8% by using only half its cylinders during most normal driving. GM expects 2 million such engines to be in use by 2008. Engines with new, more advanced variable valve controls from BMW and other manufacturers will result in further fuel savings. Another innovation is the continuously variable automatic transmission, which GM figures can cut fuel consumption by 7% to 11%. These also have 45% fewer parts than conventional four-speed automatics and are now being offered on some Saturn and Audi models. MORE OOMPH. Bosch has developed yet another gas-hoarding device, a system that allows the engine to shut off when a car is idling at a stop light or in traffic jams. Its new Directstart system can instantly restart the engine when the driver hits the gas pedal by igniting the combustion mixture in the fuel-injection system without engaging the starter motor. Bosch figures Directstart can cut a vehicle's fuel consumption by up to 5%. Performance won't necessarily suffer. One advantage of diesel and electric engines is that they have high torque at low speeds -- quick pickup. Toyota's new Lexus RX 330 sport-utility vehicle, for instance, is the first hybrid with "the performance of a V8 and the mileage of a compact car," Weiner says. Both GM and BMW are experimenting with small electric motors designed to save fuel while maintaining oomph by giving conventional engines a boost at low speeds. Best of all, the innovative technologies may not force prices up much: The average new vehicle in the U.S now costs $25,400, including finance charges, yet the median income Americans spend on a new car has dropped to 20 weeks of pay, from 30 weeks a decade ago, according to Detroit-based Comerica Bank. BIG DISTRACTIONS. Moreover, some of the latest technology takes cost out of a car. Electronic parking brakes may cost about the same as mechanical ones, but they take up less cabin space, thus giving designers new latitude, as well as having a safety advantage over handbrakes: They go on automatically when the car is idling or stopped on a hill. "You reduce complexity and warranty [claims], add features, and because it's electronic it won't cost any more," says Ford's Miller. The newest technologies do have some drawbacks. One is just how well a driver can concentrate in a car larded with CD and video players, navigation systems, cell phones, and other gizmos. Internet access -- which can be delivered via the navigation system screen -- is already coming to market in Japan and parts of Europe. "We're technically capable of doing it today, [but] we truly believe it could be unsafe," says Audi's Lembke. "We took it out of our cars because we felt it was pushing the limits of driver distraction." Privacy issues will arise, too. If cars start to record and transmit data on things like speed, where the driver has been, and whether the wipers were on in a storm, then the family car could become a snitch on its driver. DRIVERS STILL NEEDED. The new features will also test the limits of consumers' confidence in technology. For instance, replacing exterior rear-view mirrors with cameras would increase fuel economy by 3% to 5% at highway speeds, Gautier says, but he calls the idea "controversial." Would drivers accept seeing the road behind them partly via images on a screen? Another key test is steering-by-wire. BMW is introducing the closest thing yet to such an option on its new 5-series sedans. It uses electronics and a planetary gear box to help with steering but also has a conventional steering system as a backup. Many experts expect steering columns to disappear eventually, though that will probably require regulatory approval. "Most customers won't even know about it," contends Joseph Phillippi, head of AutoTrends Consulting in Short Hills, N.J. "Only car buffs will know that there's no physical connection between the steering wheel and the front end." Will cars ever drive themselves? Probably not for a few decades. Replacing humans is a tremendously complex software problem, Stanford's Gerdes says. "Fully automated driving is one of those things that since the 1940s has always been 15 years in the future," he adds. "We never seem to get there." That can wait. The changes that are just around the corner will be amazing enough.
 By Thane Peterson, a contributing editor at BusinessWeek Online
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