China's Leap in Supercomputer Rankings

In merely a decade, China has become the world's third-greatest power in high-performance computing. Will it soon boast the fastest computer?

By Rachael King

When a list of the world's 500 fastest computers is revealed on Nov. 15, it may contain a surprise. China, currently known to own the second-fastest computer, may reach the top spot. "Of the Top 10 machines today, China has two," says Jack Dongarra, director of the innovative computing laboratory at the University of Tennessee. "I know for sure they're going to have a third one in November." Dongarra has overseen the semiannual Top 500 list since it first appeared in 1993. "There's a great belief that the Chinese will be No.1," he says, adding that he has yet to see the data for next month's list.

Having the world's speediest computer carries more than bragging rights. "It means that China is taking computing seriously," says Dongarra. It's a sign that China is taking steps to spur innovation, he says.

"China gets it. These machines are useful for industry and it will help them maintain and continue on the current track of industrial growth," Dongarra says. More than half of the world's fastest computers are used by industry. Known as supercomputers, they are critical for research and simulation in areas such as climate modeling, genomics, alternative energy, and seismic imaging. Countries also use them for advanced defense. Because of the nuclear testing ban, most countries with nuclear weapons now test them virtually, on supercomputers, says Earl Joseph, an analyst at IDC. They're also used to design better tanks, submarines, aircraft, and body armor, he says.

The U.S. still dominates the Top 500. As of June, when it was last released, the U.S. accounted for more than 50 percent of the world's supercomputers, including the fastest. Yet as supercomputers become more affordable, other countries are able to narrow the U.S. lead. "Back in 2002, the Japanese became No. 1, with the Earth Simulator, and it shook things up in the U.S.," says Dongarra, who is also a professor of computer science at the University of Tennessee.

trailing the U.S. and European Union

Today, the fastest computer on the list is Jaguar, built by Seattle-based Cray (CRAY), with a theoretical peak speed of 2.33 petaflops, or more than 2 quadrillion calculations per second. Jaguar is installed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee. In testing, the system clocked in at 1.759 petaflops. In June, China's Nebulae, at the National Supercomputing Centre in Shenzhen, took the No. 2 spot with a measured speed of 1.271 petaflops, although its theoretical peak speed is higher, at 2.984 petaflops. The system was built by Dawning Information Industry Co. with components from Intel (INTC) and Nvidia (NVDA).

China's rise in supercomputing power has been swift. At the beginning of the decade, it had few, if any, supercomputers. By 2002, the country had begun to invest in them. In June, China surpassed Japan in computing power. It is currently third, behind the U.S. and second-ranked European Union. "China is poised to overtake the EU countries. The real question is when they overtake the U.S.," says Dongarra.

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