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 THE STAT 26Percentage of wireless customers who use their cell phones to take picturesMore Vitals
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OCTOBER 8, 2004
Racing to Energy's Great Green Future [Page 2 of 2] HICCUP TO DISASTER. Thanks to a combination of high energy prices and geopolitical risks, alternative energy has moved toward the top of the national agenda. Oil has hit a record $51 a barrel, up from $30 a year ago. Pushing crude ever higher are factors ranging from war, terror, and sabotage in the Middle East, to instability in oil-producing Russia and Nigeria, to rocketing demand in China. Existing wells are working at 98% of capacity, says Jim Williams, an economist at energy consultancy WTRG Economics in London, Ark. A tiny production hiccup in an oil-exporting nation now has the potential to push the U.S. into a recession. But the shift away from oil is driven by forces that run even deeper than the pressing geopolitical issues of the day. Simply put, oil and gas are natural resources that will be depleted -- sooner rather than later. While estimates vary, Shell figures that oil and gas could start becoming scarce as early as 2025. That's not so far off. BETTER AND CHEAPER. Already, energy customers appear more willing to give alternatives a chance. Lots of small businesses like Dagoba's are ponying up more for clean energy. Delivery service United Parcel Service (UPS ) is testing several hybrid cars, which run partly on electricity and are up to 50% more efficient that its current vehicles. "By using less fuel, we'd still be able to operate if something were to happen to the oil supply," says Robert Hall, fleet environmental manager with UPS in Atlanta. As the oil industry faces a inevitably dwindling future, alternative energy is getting better and cheaper all the time. Take solar energy, which is now hotter than a glass panel on a south-facing roof. "We've never experienced the demand we're experiencing today," says Ron Kenedi, general manager of Sharp Electronics' (SHCAY ) solar-systems division. "This is unprecedented." As sales rise at 30% to 40% a year, Sharp plans to expand its Memphis fabricating plant to produce 40 megawatts to 60 Mw worth of solar panels a year. That will boost the capacity of the U.S. solar market, which is now only 90 Mw per year STARTUP KNOWHOW. In the past, builders have hesitated to install solar panels onto residential roofs because they clash with aesthetic considerations mandated by many municipalities. But in six months, Sharp will release solar tiles that fit the exact dimensions of a roof, making them less conspicuous. (Today, a solar roof would often exceed a traditional roof's dimensions.) The cost is going down as well: GE Solar is aiming, by the end of the decade, to get solar panels down from today's $6 to $8 per watt installed to $3 by improving materials and system designs, says Ali Iz, who heads GE Energy's solar business. Startups, which have been tech innovators for generations, are also applying their knowhow to the energy field. Konarka Technologies plans to make solar panels that will cost less than $1 per watt. It has raised its third round of funding. Konarka's $18 million offering was oversubscribed. "[Energy security] isn't a problem that's going to go away in 30 days," says Konarka CEO Howard Berke. JOB GENERATOR? Proponents argue that green energy could have a huge positive effect on the economy. Democratic Presidential nominee Senator John Kerry says he wants to ensure that 20% of U.S. energy comes from alternative sources by 2020, up from a current federal standard of zero. That could create more than 355,000 additional jobs by 2020, net of any losses in the coal industry, estimates Jeff Deyette, energy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists in Boston. That goal may look steep, but some states are already working toward it. Governer Arnold Schwarzenegger, for one, hopes to get California to the 20% mark by 2010. Maine already derives more than 30% of its energy from alternative sources. Hawaii aims to reach 20% by 2020, and Rhode Island is shooting for 16% by 2019. The federal government is already investing in the development of fuel-cell technology, which can be used to power gasoline-free automobiles. If those investments continue at the current pace, America's oil consumption could drop by 11 million barrels a day by 2040, estimates Steve Chalk, director of the Office of Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure Technologies at the Energy Dept. That would reduce the country's dependence on oil imports, he says. To move beyond the petroleum-powered economy will take many years, if not decades. But as oil supplies wane and alternative technologies improves, a new era in energy is powering up.
 By Olga Kharif in Portland, Ore., and Steve Rosenbush in New York
BW MALL
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