Imagining the Next Bill Gates

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The incentive to cure, say, Parkinson's Disease is obvious, but the new 3N technologies also contain the potential for "discretionary upgrades." With a few simple genetic alterations, you or your children could become 20% smarter or have the heart and lung capacity of Lance Armstrong.

Such possibilities raise obvious moral and ethical concerns. But at a time when many parents obsess over getting their children into "Ivy League-track" day-care centers and plastic surgery is a common birthday present, such concerns would not likely stand in the way of the development of a substantial market.

WINNING CONFIDENCE.

In the U.S., where at least 15% of GDP is spent on health care, the productivity savings alone would transform and invigorate the economy. Today, we cheer when annual GDP improves at a 3% rate. The emergence of true "silver bullet" cures and body-part replacements would make such rates very old news indeed.

In such an environment, the first precondition for the next Bill Gates would be the ability to build a brand. As soon as you start tampering with what it means to be a human being, people will demand the assurance that the experiment isn't going to backfire, and brands help people feel comfortable.

Here, a first mover advantage will be tremendously important. The first person and company using the new technologies to cure, say, Parkinson's and then take on cystic fibrosis with the same tools will build the public confidence and trust necessary for continued growth. And that person and company will have built up enough political capital to also offer the human enhancements -- both mechanical and genetic -- that go beyond mere health.

LEFT BEHIND?

What's more, because the body is a complex and highly interactive machine, few people will risk modifying one set of genes with products from two companies. Who knows if they will play nice together? Again, all the conditions are in place for a few large companies to dominate the industry -- or perhaps just one.

Will the next Bill Gates be an American? My guess is probably not. Religious pressures and fear of change, already evident in the embryonic stem-cell debate, will probably slow down U.S. research efforts -- just as other countries, such as South Korea, accelerate their efforts to capture clear-cut economic advantage. With a healthier population, they will spend less on medicine and more on developing their economy. They will work harder and smarter. We're in danger of being left behind.

Idle speculation? Perhaps. But the 3N revolution is coming at us awfully fast. And the next Bill Gates is probably already among us.

Blonder is a partner at venture capital firm Morgenthaler Ventures and is based in Princeton, N.J. He writes about technology investing in an occasional column at http://www.businessweek.com/technology/.