Even Oracle Isn't Immune to the Slowdown

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Total revenue rose 21%, to $5.35 billion, in the third quarter, compared with $4.41 billion a year ago. Net income rose nearly 30%, to $1.34 billion, compared with $1.03 billion. On a per-share basis, Oracle earned 26¢, or 30¢ excluding special items, in line with analysts' estimates. But Oracle's revenues fell short of the $5.42 billion expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial (TOC). Operating margins increased to 41%, vs. 39% a year ago.

For most of March, Oracle shares have been on an upward ride. During the three-week period between Mar. 5 and Mar. 26, the shares rose 13.56%, handily outperforming the Nasdaq Composite Index as well as large-cap tech stocks such as Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM), Cisco, and SAP. Oracle shares closed Mar. 26 down 14¢, or 0.7%, at $20.94, and had fallen by more than 8% in after-hours trading.

Oracle forecast results for the quarter ending May 31 that were in line with analysts' estimates. The company said it expects new software license revenues to increase by 10% to 20%, including applications, databases, and middleware. It expects to earn 37¢ or 38¢ per share, compared with 31¢ a year earlier.

Cautious optimism

Moreover, Oracle's flagship database business continues to steam ahead. New license sales for database and middleware software grew 20% in the third quarter, to $1.17 billion, and the company signed database contracts with customers including RealNetworks (RNWK), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Omni Hotels. As Oracle continues to acquire companies, it's positioned itself as a supplier of more of the software its customers use to run their operations.

Oracle added to its middleware portfolio when it bought BEA Systems (BusinessWeek.com, 1/17/08) on Jan. 16 for $8.5 billion after a protracted takeover negotiation. The deal is expected to close during the current quarter. The same day, Oracle acquired document management software maker Captovation for an undisclosed amount.

The net result is that Oracle has a broader palette of products to sell to its customers, which results in sales reps being able to close deals for more products with each customer, UBS (UBS) software analyst Heather Bellini said in a Mar. 6 research report. In a Mar. 26 note she called Oracle's third-quarter application license sales "clearly disappointing," however.

During the company's conference call, Oracle's executives sought to reassure investors that the scope of its third-quarter troubles were limited. "We've been through this before, and we know how to adjust to it," said Oracle Co-President Charles Phillips. The argument is finding some takers. "In a big global economic downturn, should that occur, these guys are well positioned to weather that storm," says Avian Securities' Gaggin.

In the short term, though, investors who have turned to Oracle as a harbor could find the waves a bit rough.

Ricadela is a writer for BusinessWeek.com in Silicon Valley.