Even Oracle Isn't Immune to the Slowdown

A disappointing third quarter highlights the software giant's vulnerability to the ripple effects a sluggish economy is having on IT

by Aaron Ricadela

Tech investors looking for a stock haven amid roiling markets of late have turned to industry consolidator Oracle. Shares of the software company rose nearly 14% over a three-week span in March as investors bet on Oracle's formidable lead in database software and its aggressive acquisition strategy in business applications as an antidote to the economic malaise that's throttling IT budgets.

Some of those shareholders reconsidered their strategy on Mar. 26 after Oracle (ORCL) released fiscal third-quarter results that fell short of analysts' forecasts. Oracle reported sales of new business application software licenses, a barometer of future revenue, that were about $100 million less than Wall Street expected.

Total sales fell $70 million short of expectations in the period that ended Feb. 29, and Oracle shares fell in extended trading. "Our checks suggested [the results] were going to be pretty solid all around, so we're surprised by this," says Jeff Gaggin, an enterprise software analyst at Avian Securities.

Ellison Looks Ahead

Oracle executives attributed the shortfall to customers who are taking longer to sign off on IT purchases as the economy slows. "Deals are getting done, although they took a bit longer than expected in the last few days of the quarter," Safra Catz, Oracle's co-president and chief financial officer, said during a conference call with investors to discuss the results. Oracle Chief Executive Larry Ellison added that the company faced a difficult comparison with the year-earlier period, when new application license sales rose 57%. Ellison predicted a rebound in the business during the current quarter, which ends in May.

But for now, it's apparent Oracle isn't immune to the slump that's causing some corporations to curtail IT spending, darkening the outlook for a host of tech bellwethers, from Cisco Systems (CSCO), to Intel (INTC), to Dell (DELL). Dell's profits fell by 6.5% in its fourth quarter ended Feb. 1, as financial services companies slowed spending, Intel said on Mar. 3 it expects lower first-quarter profit margins on weaker flash memory prices, and Cisco on Feb. 6 issued a disappointing sales forecast for its third quarter (BusinessWeek.com, 2/8/08), which ended in April.

At Oracle, third-quarter application license revenue increased a mere 6.6%, to $451 million, far short of Wall Street's expectations for 30% growth, to $553 million. Oracle, the dominant supplier of database software, is counting on rapid growth in business applications, which companies use to manage payrolls, chart financial performance, and keep track of inventory levels, to expand in size and take market share from rival SAP (SAP). Oracle has bought about 40 software companies for more than $25 billion in a little more than three years to gain share in the market.

A Fine Ride for Shares

Despite the disappointing third-quarter growth, analysts say Oracle is still well positioned for the future. "Given the environment we're in, it was a decent quarter," says Andy Miedler, a senior technology analyst at Edward Jones. "Make no mistake about it—Oracle, and technology in general, is an economically sensitive area," he adds. "Customers are prudently being more cautious. You'd expect deals will take a little longer to close than they would just a few months ago."