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MARCH 24, 2005
By Peter Burrows Jeff Hawkins' Bold Brainstorm [Page 2 of 2]
COMPUTERIZED CLAIRVOYANCE. If Hawkins' idea works, it could have an almost limitless number of applications. Attached to electronic eyes, such systems could pick out a terror suspect's face in a crowd as quickly as you could spot your mother -- a task today's computers can't handle. The systems would also have military uses. Unmanned aircraft could go far beyond the rudimentary drones now in use. Or, the Army could outfit soldiers with a small device and various sensors enabling them to see, hear, and detect all manner of threats -- from an enemy creeping up from behind, to footsteps around the corner. Plug in enough weather data, and one of Hawkins' computers might predict rain or snow -- not based on an actual forecast, but with a kind of electronic sixth sense akin to what experienced fishermen feel when they scan the skies. FREE SAMPLES. Since 2003, Hawkins and co-founder Dileep George, who will serve as principal engineer at Numenta, have been working on software that incorporates such basic memory architecture. So far, they've developed a proof-of-concept program. By "showing" their program 90 simple line drawings -- one of a helicopter, another of a dog, for example -- they can teach it enough to identify another drawing of that object, even if it's poorly drawn or incomplete. While science has already made similar efforts at machine vision, Hawkins insists this marks the first time a piece of software has had such predictive power. "If I see a cat behind a chair, I don't think it's half a cat," he says. And neither does his software, he claims. While there is no undeniable proof of his sweeping unified theory, Hawkins has enough to take the next step: to develop the software and related tools so that engineers from various disciplines can try it out in their worlds. INSTANT DEMAND. To encourage such widespread use, Numenta will initially charge nothing for its technology. Hawkins and Dubinsky, who have raised an undisclosed amount from a handful of friends and associates, will supply most of the $1 million-plus annual budget themselves. They still need to figure out the licensing details. "The next step in the evolution of this is to create a profit motive for people to rally around," says Hawkins. Adds Gary Bradski, a machine-learning expert at Intel (INTC ): "Even if he's wrong, his theory is better than nothing. And it's 'attackable' -- and that's a good thing." Certainly, indications point to Hawkins receiving lots of interest. Raj Kent, a technologist with Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Labs (LMT ), says he has already spoken with Numenta about seeking grants for "cognitive computing" research the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will offer. "THE MOST IMPORTANT THING." And Ajay Bakshi, a consultant in McKinsey & Co.'s health-care practice, read Hawkins' book and plans to contact him about using his ideas to help pharmaceutical companies discover new drugs. "Nobody was stepping back and looking at the big picture [of how the brain works]," he says. "Hawkins has given us a very big picture. It's a low-resolution picture -- but it will lead to a whole bunch of experiments." That's just what Hawkins wants. "I don't need to run another company," he says. "But I think this is the most important thing I can do with my life. I'm trying to create a movement. Artificial intelligence had one for years, and neural networks had its time. But they were flawed theories. And I think we've got it right." Experts caution against making such a claim too soon. But even if Hawkins finds only a small sliver of the Holy Grail he seeks, he'll add yet another industry-moving startup to his résumé.
 Burrows is Computer editor in BusinessWeek's Silicon Valley bureau
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