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 THE STAT 26Percentage of wireless customers who use their cell phones to take picturesMore Vitals
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MARCH 16, 2004
America's Enduring Tech Edge [Page 2 of 2] So won't that threaten U.S. technological leadership? It could. But the key question isn't where the ideas or breakthroughs come from. It's which countries will benefit the most from them. "Intellectual dilution is inevitable," explains Greg E. Blonder, a former Bell Laboratories scientist who's now a venture capitalist. "Whether we want to outsource R&D or not, the reality is most of it is going to occur outside the U.S." In the future, he adds, "the U.S. can only count on making at most one in five inventions." After all, he points out, "there's only a quarter of a billion people in the U.S., vs. 6.5 billion or 7 billion elsewhere. And the people in China and India are disproportionately interested in doing engineering and science -- much more so than we are in the U.S. So you've got to figure the odds are against us coming up with all the good ideas over time." That's not necessarily a threat, however. Remember that some of the overseas research is being funded by U.S. industry. The fruits of that work should flow back to the U.S. -- and at a lower cost than doing it here. America benefits from the resulting boost in productivity. And the R&D spending helps raise local standards of living, creating more consumers for U.S. goods. It's also hard to argue that more research -- wherever it takes place -- is bad. Like everything else in the global economy, ideas and innovations are fungible. The real key is creating the right economic and business climate for spotting and developing ideas (wherever they spring from). As long as America is a land where dreams can be chased and realized and where failure is allowed, it will stay atop the technological heap -- and be a mecca for many of the brightest minds around the world. Is that likely to remain true? Perhaps not as much as Americans would like. Clearly, as R&D opportunities increase elsewhere, ambitious young researchers have less need to emigrate to the U.S. And American polices aren't helping either. Increasing hassles with visas for graduate students and young researchers are slowing the flow of bright young minds. "Applications from international students for advanced science and engineering degree programs are down by a third compared to last year," warns Donald F. Boesch, president of the University of Maryland. "If this continues for a long time, it will mean trouble for U.S. competitiveness." So what should we conclude? When it comes to R&D, the U.S. system is fundamentally sound. Yes, it would be better if spending began to increase again. But right now, no evidence exists of any serious problem. Yet at the same time, sweeping trends may forever alter the landscape. More and more, ideas and inventions and even new technologies will spring up on foreign soil. It's possible that overseas competitors will take advantage of those inventions and push the U.S. into a technological decline. It's also possible that U.S. businesses will be quick to pounce on the new ideas -- and that the powerful American economy will provide the most fertile environment for the development and commercialization of inventions. The lesson of the past is that it probably makes a lot of sense to worry. But it's also well to remember that over the past several decades, predictions of the demise of American's tech prowess have been greatly exaggerated.
 By John Carey in Washington, with Otis Port and Adam Aston in New York
BW MALL
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