Oracle's Earnings: A Good Omen for Tech?

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Keeping lower-margin hardware operations would be a strategic departure for Oracle, which generates healthy margins from sales of database, middleware, and business applications. Oracle executives indicated during the conference call with analysts that they will take a run at the hardware business. Oracle has spent more than $30 billion on 55 acquisitions since 2005 to compete with SAP (SAP) in applications software, and with IBM in the market for application-connecting middleware.

The company has withstood the worst effects of the slow economy because of recurring revenues from support contracts. Excluding stock compensation and charges for acquisitions, Oracle's operating margin was 51% during the quarter. Annual fees paid by customers for the rights to new versions of Oracle's software and for technical support accounted for 44% of Oracle's fourth-quarter revenue, and the contracts are considered highly profitable. "The margin story has to do with our enormous installed base of customers who renew their agreements with us every year," Oracle President Safra Catz told analysts.

The company's profit margin will undoubtedly fall after the Sun deal closes, but analysts say the expected declines are reflected in Sun's stock price, and that investors view the acquisition as a positive. "Oracle is a pretty boring story without Sun," says Yun Kim, an analyst at Broadpoint AmTech (BPSG), who has a buy rating on Oracle's stock.

Sun's Hardware Business is Promising

Catz told analysts to expect a decline in sales of 1% to 4% for the first quarter that ends in August, and earnings of 29¢ to 31¢ per share. Oracle also declared a dividend of 5¢ per share payable on Aug. 13.

Brent Thill, director of software research at Citigroup (C), who also rates Oracle a buy, told clients in a June 22 research note that although investors usually fear a "seasonal drop-off" in sales during Oracle's traditionally slow summer quarter, prospects of an economic recovery and the imminent closing of the Sun acquisition "will outweigh those issues." When Oracle announced the deal on Apr. 20, it said Sun would add at least 15¢ per share to its non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) income in the first full year after closing.

Despite calls by some investors for Oracle to sell Sun's hardware business and keep its software products, Oracle executives said they have the opportunity to deliver products that combine Sun computers with Oracle software in a way that gives information technology departments more confidence that the hardware and software will work well together. To underline the point, Oracle Chief Executive Larry Ellison spent half his speaking time on the conference call talking up the virtues of a product called Exadata that runs Oracle's database on Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) hardware.

Ellison's willingness to jump further into the computer hardware market by buying Sun has deep roots, says John Wookey, an executive vice-president at SAP, who left Oracle early in 2008. Ellison used to personally fix errors in programs running on old IBM mainframe computers, according to Wookey. "Larry likes hardware," he says.

If he demonstrates that affection by keeping Sun's hardware assets, investors will focus on whether he can run a hardware business as well as the software juggernaut he's assembled.

Ricadela is a writer for BusinessWeek in Silicon Valley.

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