Oracle's Earnings: A Good Omen for Tech?

Fiscal fourth-quarter results from the software behemoth fueled optimism that a rally in tech stocks may continue

By Aaron Ricadela

Wall Street took heart from a report showing better-than-expected earnings from Oracle (ORCL), the Silicon Valley software giant. Technology stocks have been on a roll this spring, and investors eyed Oracle's fourth-quarter report on June 23 for signs the rally might continue.

Sales, profits, and new software bookings for Oracle's fiscal fourth quarter ended on May 31 exceeded Wall Street's forecasts. That sent shares of Oracle up 2.7% in extended trading, after closing on June 23 down 10¢, or 0.5%, at $19.87. The shares have gained 8.8% in the past three months.

Profits declined 7% and revenues fell 5% in the period, though results would have been better if not for the effects of translating overseas sales into a rising U.S. currency. On Wall Street, analysts said Oracle's recurring revenues from technical support contracts and prudent control of expenses during the quarter helped offset currency-related declines. "Oracle continues to be a high-quality investment," says Andy Miedler, a senior technology analyst at Edward Jones who rates Oracle a "buy."

Pickup in Software Sales

Investors are lifting the shares of tech outfits including IBM (IBM), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Adobe Systems (ADBE) that reported relatively healthy results during the recession by taking advantage of companies' need to buy products that can boost productivity, Miedler says. "Investors see tech companies posting fairly decent results in this environment, and they're rewarding them for it," he says. The Nasdaq composite index has risen 13.4% since Mar. 24, outpacing other indices.

Oracle executives told Wall Street analysts in a conference call that customers are beginning to buy more software, and pointed to deals closed during the quarter with Wal-Mart (WMT), American Express (AXP), Vodafone Group (VOD), and Perry Ellis (PERY). "The sense of panic and deer-in-the-headlights kind of feeling" has subsided, said Oracle President Charles Phillips.

For the fourth quarter, Oracle earned $1.9 billion, or 38¢ a share, compared with $2.03 billion, or 40¢ a year earlier. Excluding stock compensation and one-time charges, earnings were 46¢ a share, exceeding Wall Street analysts' estimate of 44¢. Revenues were $6.9 billion, vs. $7.2 billion a year earlier. Analysts had expected sales of $6.47 billion. Sales of new software licenses, a closely watched measure of future revenues, were down 13%, to $2.7 billion, but also exceeded analysts' expectations.

Weathering the Recession

Looking ahead, investors are still waiting for more clarity from the company about how quickly it can cut costs after its $7.4 billion acquisition of computer and software maker Sun Microsystems (JAVA) closes this summer, and whether it will keep Sun's server and storage business.

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