Microsoft's Plan B for Search

(page 2 of 2)

Microsoft and Powerset are complementary in other ways (BusinessWeek.com, 6/17/08). Rather than focus on creating one consumer-facing site capable of answering any query, like Google has, Microsoft has split its search engine into specific categories—a comparison-shopping engine, Microsoft Live Cashback; a travel search engine, Farecast; and a health-specific search engine, health.live.com. Today, semantic search engines do best with such category-specific searches, which help them to scan a smaller set of pages in detail. Scanning the entire Web in that much detail is difficult to do quickly.

Powerset's Potential Problems

Yet, Powerset is no panacea. The processing power and time required to perform semantic searches are the main drawbacks of the technology. It can take a microprocessor as long as 20 seconds to analyze a page. As a result, many of the sites today scan just a subset of the pages on the Web. Currently, Powerset's site, for example, only scans Wikipedia articles. Cognition, another semantic search engine, scans pages in the health and legal fields. It will probably take years for the semantic search engines to be able to scan the whole Web in a timely manner.

A second potential problem is that there are a couple of semantic engines out there, each gunning for Google. Hakia, which has raised $21 million to develop a search engine capable of indexing the entire Web, hopes to someday be a Google competitor. "The promise is that we will be a competitor to the big search engines," says Berkan. "Definitely within five years we will see big changes in the search market."

Indeed, some of these engines are willing to be acquired by a Google. Brooke Aker is CEO of Italy-based Expert System, the maker of semantic search engine Cogito Focus. He sees a union with the major search engines as the fastest way to spread semantic technology across the Web. "I do see it merging," says Aker. "We don't have the big server farms like a Google does."

Microsoft's Challenges

And even if Microsoft can put in place the infrastructure semantic search needs, it will still face two challenges it has been trying to surmount for years. One concerns multimedia. Semantic search does not offer a great solution for recognizing videos and images. It can scan the words people use to describe a video or an image. But it can't yet analyze the soundtrack or images in a video to determine whether those descriptions are accurate. Google is working on better technology. Last September, it hired experts who could help it decipher images, such as scanned pages in books.

The other big hurdle is the power of Google's brand. The company's name has become synonymous with search and its users are loyal. To take share, semantic search will need to develop a reputation for providing better, more relevant results than Google.

Microsoft is determined, if nothing else. Company CEO Steve Ballmer has said repeatedly that the company is in the search game for the long haul. Having stumbled in its most audacious attempt at grabbing share, it's time for Plan B.

Holahan is a writer for BusinessWeek.com in New York.