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JUNE 8, 2006
News Analysis

By Carlos Bergfeld


AOL's Security Gamble

Time Warner's Internet unit hopes its security package will boost its appeal to customers and prospects. But it's far from a sure sale


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The security software market is about to get even more crowded. Time Warner's (TWX) AOL plans to take the plunge with a product package, Total Care, that will be available to consumers as well as its own subscribers, according to a person familiar with the matter. Total Care begins beta testing in the coming weeks.


There's already loads of reliable security software on offer and a formidable competitor, Microsoft (MSFT), just joined the fray (see BW Online, 6/01/06, "Microsoft Sweeps Into Security"). Still, many consumers have yet to avail themselves of much of what's out there. A December survey by the National Cyber Security Alliance found that 81% of personal computers lacked at least one of antivirus software, spyware protection, or a firewall.

And while the tech-savvy may be hip to the latest threats, the general public apparently isn't. A study released in May from the alliance revealed 61 percent of respondents could not identify a legitimate e-mail, even though 87 percent said they were able to recognize the so-called phishing scams whereby cybercrooks try to nab sensitive personal information through fraudulent e-mails.

GOOSING SALES.  What's in it for AOL? Plenty. The company continues to lose dial-up subscribers- - 858,000 in the first quarter alone -- and it's racing to lure customers with premium services, such as those delivered over broadband connections (see BW Online, 5/4/06, "The Ails of AOL").

The company hasn't yet said how much Total Care will cost, but AOL could generate sales with a subscription-based, all-in-one security package. That could be more appealing to customers than lower-priced or even free components that can be a hassle to set up and update.

As convenient as the security package may be, AOL will need to hold its own against some well regarded, established players -- not to mention recent entrants. For many, there's little reason to turn to an Internet service provider like AOL instead of a dedicated software-security company. "If you're not an AOL subscriber, they're not going to be your first choice for security," says the Yankee Group's Andrew Jaquith. Symantec (SYMC) dominates the market with a 75.4 percent share, and McAfee (MFE) is a distant second with 12 percent.

ANY ROOM?  AOL is betting that Total Care will at least give its own members a convenient source for computer protection. The product will not replace AOL's current Safety and Security Center, but will be a supplement to it, said a source familiar with the company's plans. Presumably, the service won't be free, but any fee could be conveniently tied to a monthly bill.

And AOL will partner with some of the existing heavy hitters. One is McAfee, says McAfee President Kevin Weiss. "We'll be a part of it," he says. "The offering will clearly have McAfee content, some they've created themselves and some from others." The current AOL software integrates services from McAfee into its Safety and Security Center. Weiss says Total Care would use components from McAfee and other security providers, though it won't be a repackaging of his company's planned all-in-one security product, code-named "Falcon."

Yet even he concedes AOL won't have an easy ride. "God bless 'em," Weiss says. "It's amazing. It's a crowded space."

With Sarah Lacy in Silicon Valley
Bergfeld is an intern for BusinessWeek.com in Silicon Valley


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