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FEBRUARY 26, 2004

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NEWS ANALYSIS

The 64-Bit Question
What does this newest generation of PC chips mean for you? Unless you're a real demanding sort, maybe not much -- at least for a while


If 32-bit computing is good, does it follow that 64-bit computing should be twice as good? Well, yes -- but also not necessarily. Anyone who has ever bought a computer has heard the claims made about chip speeds. Processor makers and PC companies are always trying to lure buyers with promises of better performance thanks to faster processors. Power users can't bear to buy a 3.2-gigahertz chip once the 3.4s come out. Now, that performance promise is starting to enter a new realm, not of speed but of the ability to handle more memory.


Back in the late '80s and early '90s, the typical desktop PC carried what's known as a 16-bit processor, which could handle, or "address," up to 1 megabyte of random-access memory. Then came the standard that still dominates today, the 32-bit processor, which can address a seemingly gargantuan 4 gigabytes of RAM. Lately, the next step has been taken: to bring to the common desktop the 64-bit processor, which can address the unimaginable 16 exabytes (or 16 billion gigabytes) of memory.

HYBRID BEASTS.  Leading this charge is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD ), the pesky chipmaker that's always trying to challenge market kingpin Intel (INTC ). AMD has come out with 64-bit chips called Athlon 64 designed for desktops and notebooks, and Opteron for traditionally more powerful servers. AMD's newest chips are hybrids that can run software designed for both 32-bit and 64-bit machines.

And in recent weeks it has become clear that 32/64-bit combination processors for servers are taking off. Their ability to address loads of memory allows certain applications, such as databases, to run much faster than on today's 32-bit processors.

Corporate customers love that, and in February, hardware makers Sun (SUNW ) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ ) have announced new servers based on AMD's dual-mode Opteron chips, joining IBM (IBM ), which already makes Opteron-based servers. These chips attracted such big-name computer-makers because they cost less than Intel's 64-bit-only Itanium server chip.

QUICKER SHIFT?  Naturally, on Feb. 17, Intel unveiled a new hybrid 32/64-bit version of its heretofore 32-bit Xeon chip for servers and workstations. Intel's move not only puts its stamp of approval on this small but fast-growing market. It's also sparking speculation that 64-bit computing will soon become accepted not just servers and workstations -- but for desktops, by far, the largest PC processor market.

Indeed, it looks like the transition from 32-bit to 64-bit computing will happen faster than the move from 16 bits to 32 bits, which took seven years. This latest shift, helped by clever marketing, could perhaps take only five years, say analysts -- even though it will bring fewer dramatic improvements in most customers' experience. Those who simply use e-mail and word processing won't notice any changes, say experts.

That's because 64-bit chips are really meant for use on a whole new set of software applications, which are nothing like what's available today. And it could be several years before those applications get developed.

Yes, 64-bit chips can greatly improve a server performance (for instance, by speeding up retrieval of data from those giant databases). They'll certainly also be important for corporate users running demanding applications like animation and mathematical calculations. And on desktops, consumers who play intense 3-D games or do video editing will appreciate the extra memory addressability.
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