Check Expectations for Apple's Tablet at the Door

If its engineers hew to recent history, Apple's tablet computer may look nothing like what the prognosticators foresee

By Arik Hesseldahl

The speculative madness surrounding Apple's rumored tablet computer has finally reached its frothy peak.

Tech's chattering classes are obsessed with the unconfirmed product, which Apple (AAPL) may announce at an event in January, or February, or March, depending on which set of reports you adhere to. Apple, not surprisingly, is mum.

The hunger for information—and misguided speculation—reminds me of the mistaken prognosticating about the iPhone before its introduction three years ago. It may be time to step back and realize that Apple may uncork a product so surprising that the company again leaves the tech industry scrambling to catch up to its products' smooth operation and sleek design.

Documented facts about the tablet are few. This much we do know: In November 2008, Apple took control of the trademark name TabletMac from a company called Axiotron, which converts MacBook laptops into tablet computers running Apple's Mac OS X.

Wild Imaginings

In April, BusinessWeek talked with people who had seen prototypes of a device they called a media pad as well as a small iPhone, described as "iPhone lite" by the person who saw it.

Then there's outside speculation. In November the Taiwanese Web site Digitimes, often regarded as a solid source of information regarding the plans of Taiwan's electronic manufacturing sector, reported that the Apple tablet had been delayed until the second half of 2010 because of the price to build its display.

On Dec. 24, New York Times blogger Nick Bilton quoted two people—one an unnamed source, the other a former Apple employee—dropping tantalizing clues. Jobs is "very happy" with the machine, and users will be "very surprised at how you interact with the new tablet," the Times wrote. About the same time, the Financial Times reported that Apple plans to reveal the new device at an event at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco on Jan. 26.

Missing the Mark on the iPhone

It's important to take reports like these with an appropriate helping of salt. Apple holds numerous trademarks it doesn't actively use; ever hear of MacTel, Vingle, or Drypod? In addition, Apple's top-secret labs in Cupertino, Calif., have probably developed numerous tablet prototypes, some of which may be used to show potential partners but that don't represent a finished product. And leakers have a tendency to exaggerate what they know, or invent from whole cloth.

A similar speculative frenzy surrounded the January 2007 iPhone launch. Looking back at Apple rumor site postings in the months leading up to its debut, I noticed how far off the mark many were about the iPhone's looks, Apple's partners, and who the carrier would be who could resell it. For example, enthusiasts' home-made design drawings that emerged on rumor sites showed a phone that sported a navigation wheel similar to the iPod's. Others imagined the iPhone would have a slide-out keyboard.

Few saw the potential for a touch-sensitive display, which eventually became the signature design element of the iPhone and iPod touch.

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