A Decade of Predictions for Green Transit by 2010

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4. Prediction: Hybrids will form a bridge to EVs. "In the near term, at least, hybrid cars are more likely than battery-electrics to be a solution to the problems of air pollution and dependence on imported oil," The New York Times wrote in 2000. "Toyota, which has produced both types of vehicles, told California regulators last week that the public was not ready to accept electrics; indeed, Toyota said it could not sell the cars and would have to pay customers to take them."

How it worked out: That prediction still seems on target. Toyota's (TM) early bet on hybrid tech with the Prius proved a smart one, but even the hybrid leader is now working on an "affordable" plug-in model for 2011. Global Insight has forecast that hybrids could snag perhaps 10% of the U.S.market by 2015, up from 2.2% in 2007. By comparison, electric vehicles are expected to take a smaller, but growing share of the market in that time frame.

5. Prediction: It's clear sailing now for electric car tech. "There are no technology hurdles at all [for electric transportation]. It's simply a matter of getting the vehicle built out on the street and getting people to recognize its value," Robert Graham of the Electric Power Research Institute said in a 2005 New York Times article.

How it worked out: One of the biggest remaining hurdles for mass-market adoption of electric cars—cost—has everything to do with technology. The battery technology, that is. The race is on now to reduce cost by increasing energy density. Startups including Envia Systems, Amprius, PowerGenix, Mobius Power, Seeo, and many more are trying to tackle this.

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