Forecast for 2010: The Coming Cloud 'Catastrophe'

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Also on the horizon for the coming year, Microsoft will face multiple operating system challenges, including competition from a resurgent Mac OS, Google's Chrome OS (GOOG), mobile operating systems from Android, Nokia's (NOK) Symbian mobile OS, and others. "Two years ago it would have seemed like Windows had this all locked up forever, and now tell me who will win on all those hardware platforms," Anderson says.

Netbooks will gain in popularity and within a couple years will become the biggest segment of the personal computing market, Anderson contends. As netbooks and smartphones and Web tablets take hold, content in all forms will continue to break free from long-held restrictions, becoming substantially more mobile-friendly than ever. First-run TV shows and movies will be as readily available on handheld phones as they have been elsewhere—for a price.

Apple's iTunes, which sells not only music and TV shows, but also mobile applications, has proven that people are willing to pay for content on their phones, Anderson says. "They'll pay a small amount of money, but they'll happily pay," he says. "Some things will be free, but increasingly they won't be."

online content will finally earn cash

The willingness to pay for mobile content, in turn, will drive adoption of small payments, or micropayments, for content, Anderson says. Those over 35 who perceive value to content will be willing to pay. Those under 35, who are accustomed to getting content for free, won't, he believes. As consumers age, Anderson predicts their attitudes will change.

News media will also become increasingly willing to charge for content online. In recent months, News Corp. (NWS) CEO Rupert Murdoch has said the company will start charging for content on its newspaper sites. "I hate to say it, but Rupert is right," Anderson says. "People who have things of value in the media business damn well better charge for them."

And while software giant Microsoft will continue to dominate on the desktop, Anderson believes the company will lose relevance in the consumer electronics and mobile markets—except in the gaming arena. "It's time to say it: Microsoft has lost its play for consumers," Anderson says. "This is mostly about the phone."

The most important mobile players will be Apple, Nokia's Symbian, and Google's Android. Microsoft is going to have difficulty finding new revenue streams, Anderson holds. "It doesn't mean its going to stop growing, but it does mean that its growth is going to be pretty moderate and then it may taper off," Anderson says.

How accurate are Anderson's prognostications? Last year he predicted that voice-activated applications would come to smart phones, harnessing computing in the cloud. He forecast that the wireless industry would settle on a technology standard known as LTE, or Long-Term Evolution, for its next-generation technology. And mobile applications such as those on Apple's iPhone, he said, would catch on like wildfire.

Hesseldahl is a reporter for BusinessWeek.com.

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