The Coming Virtual Web

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The Metaverse Roadmap, formed by the Acceleration Studies Foundation, a nonprofit tech research group, has set out to define the 3D Internet. But even Metaverse Roadmap assumes much of its vision won't materialize until 2016—and some participants think even that date is ambitious.

For one thing, many people don't even have personal computers that can handle the often heavy processing demands of virtual worlds. The amount of data required by 3D environments also can tax even high-speed Internet connections.

And all these virtual worlds are relatively closed systems, requiring people to download and learn special software, and then hope their friends do the same. One software company, Multiverse Network, is trying to push a "world browser" that would allow people to traverse many different worlds.

Competing Visions of the Future

Even if that's successful, 3D technology won't fully replace the current Web. Fact is, a lot of information, such as search results, lists of products, e-mail, and most of what we do online today may always be most efficiently accomplished with existing tools. Melissinos is a lifetime video and computer gamer, but even he concedes: "Not everything needs to be put in a 3D interface."

Indeed, some Web experts think all this talk of virtual worlds supplanting the Web is hooey. "3D interfaces always seem more glamorous," says Web usability expert Jakob Nielsen, a principal with product development consultant Nielsen/Norman Group. "But they're rarely useful for managing information." Nielsen contends that while 3D excels for a number of applications, such as medical scans, architecture, and chemical modeling, most information is best accessed and analyzed in more mundane, 2D fashion.

Controversial as these visions of the future Internet are, attempts to create metaverses for the masses keep sprouting up. Not surprisingly, they're most intense in gaming, thanks to the success of World of Warcraft, which now has more than 8 million paying subscribers. And for the next few years, that's likely to remain the focus of virtual worlds.

A Big Bang of Potential Applications

But that doesn't mean they'll remain a niche. Gaming companies are aiming to forge more links between their world and the so-called real one. Viacom's (VIA) MTV Networks, for instance, has several virtual environments, such as Virtual Laguna Beach, that connect to its television shows.

Virtual worlds also are providing new online venues for education well beyond posting class notes and reading lists. Dozens of universities are conducting classes and other activities inside Second Life. At Ball State University in Muncie, Ind., for instance, some freshmen are taking the English 104 composition course partly inside the world, writing about field trips they take inside Second Life. A sign of how compelling the notion is: The first class drew 300 applicants for 18 slots.

If virtual-world visionaries have their way, those are just the start of a coming Big Bang of potential applications. Take shopping. It's no secret that the same efficiency that drives e-commerce also makes it a boring and lonely pursuit. "What missing from online shopping is the social and recreational experience," says PARC's Moore. "That's exactly what you get with virtual-world shopping."

Mapping Real Facial Expressions

For instance, Apple (AAPL) could run virtual dance or jazz clubs that let visitors buy music from its iTunes store as they listen to music with friends, he says. "Virtual worlds will be bigger in five years for shopping than the Web," contends T. Sibley Verbeck, CEO of Electric Sheep, which helps businesses market in Second Life and other venues.