Posted by: Peter Burrows on October 19, 2009
Piper Jaffray just issued a report laying out the reasons why Apple is likely to sign up multiple carriers for the iPhone in the US, whenever its exclusive distribution arrangement with AT&T lapses (probably in mid-2010). Among the obvious facts—such as that the company has moved away from exclusives in every country where it has had them—are some interesting nuggets. For example, Apple’s share of the smart phone market in France has ballooned to 40%, from 15%, in just six months since carriers SFR and Bouygues began selling the iPhone along with formerly-exclusive partner Orange.
Also, the firm did a cost-benefit analysis on whether Apple should not only end exclusivity in the US, but also spend the money to develop and support a version of the iPhone that runs on the CDMA network technology used by market giant Verizon (which doesn’t support the current iPhone, which works on GSM technology). While Apple would lose around $50 in subsidy per phone (just 10% of the total subsidy—so not a huge haircut) and incur around $25 in extra development costs per phone, these would be a small price relative to the increase in overall sales, Piper argues.
The big loser, not surprisingly given AT&T’s network woes, would be Ma Bell. Piper assumes that the carrier’s iPhone sales would plummet by three million, or 27%, from current sales projections if customers could get their iPhones elsewhere. But GSM shop T-Mobile would sell one million, and CDMA shops Verizon and Sprint would sell 4.6 million. The overall sales bump would be a huge 24%, making it relatively easy for Apple to forget the better economics of its exclusive arrangement with AT&T. “With 35% of AT&T’s iPhone sales coming from new customers, we feel it is reasonable to assume the company’s total iPhone sales could decline by 30% or more and that Verizon could pick up the bulk of this lost share (why switch to AT&T for iPhone if you haven’t left by now and the device is available through your carrier; Verizon’s network quality could be a reasoon to switch from AT&T),” writes Piper analyst Christopher Larsen.
More broadly, Larsen makes a very big claim that says as much about Apple’s strength in smart phones, as it does about the relative weakness of everyone else. “Although the iPhone is a strong player in the smartphone market, expanding its multi-vendor strategy could allow it to dominate the industry, as it does with the iPod.”
What do you think?
It depends on what you mean when you say "dominate the industry." You have to remember that Nokia et. al. have many models of phones. The iPhone is very strong and it may outsell any one model from the competition, but outsell ALL Nokia and other brands of phones, worldwide? That's a pretty huge prospect, and it seems fairly unlikely.
It might be a smart move for Apple to launch their iTablet on various carriers and follow multi-vendor strategy.
This approach may kill two birds with one shot - obviously first one mentioned above and second one is a direct hit against Windows (7 or XP of netbooks). It will also help test the waters (if all the above is not obvious to Apple's team).
So far Apple has demonstrated very good sales strategies so lets see how they pan out this one.
This is the very best tech news I've heard in a long time! The AT&T service is horrible. I've had an iphone since day one. I would LOVE to switch back to Verizon, and would do so the first day it's available. I had Verizon before the iphone and had perfect service.
This is the very best tech news I've heard in a long time! The AT&T service is horrible. I've had an iphone since day one. I would LOVE to switch back to Verizon, and would do so the first day it's available. I had Verizon before the iphone and had perfect service.
Don't expect to see an iPhone on Verizon until it converts CDMA to LTE (so maybe 2011-2012). Not often noted, you can access voice and data at the same time with ATT/GSM, but not with CDMA. Plus, CDMA is a real battery hog and at this point a dead technology.
Don't expect to see an iPhone on Verizon until it converts CDMA to LTE (so maybe 2011-2012). Not often noted, you can access voice and data at the same time with ATT/GSM, but not with CDMA. Plus, CDMA is a real battery hog and at this point a dead technology.
I've been considering replacing my 8 yo (or so) Nokia to a smartphone, but want an iPhone and don't want to change carriers. Time to start setting aside the funds...
I really don't get this love for Verizon - I had them for 2 years and their customer service was HORRIBLE! So BAD that I wouldn't use them again, even if they were giving away free iPhones. I switched to AT&T 4 years ago (Well AT&T, then Cingular, now AT&T again) and have no complaints - but then I don't have anything but a plain old cell phone (and experimenting with VOIP on a iPod Touch).
I'm waiting for the min to switch to Verizon with iPhone, att is horrible why cant we find out the exact date when the contract with att ends? I think that it will be a iPhone on Verizon the min the contract ends
I'm waiting for the min to switch to Verizon with iPhone, att is horrible why cant we find out the exact date when the contract with att ends? I think that it will be a iPhone on Verizon the min the contract ends
I'm waiting for Verizon, myself. My wife and I have been using Macs for 24 years, and desperately want iPhones, but we hate AT+T's wireless service. It doesn't even work at our house! So I'm on Verizon and she is on T-Mobile. We're waiting, without contracts, for a decent provider to strike a deal with Apple.
There have to be millions like us.
If AT&T would/could only expand 3G coverage... The speed is great IF you have coverage in your area. You could say the same for the voice coverage as well (voice coverage not as good as Verizon or Spring). Regardless, it would seem that Apple would want to do something soon in order to keep Android powered phones from getting too big of a foothold with the larger (and better) carriers' customers.
I have Verizon now and will never switch, had AT&T and service is terrible where I live. If Apple does not make the IPhone available soon on Verizon I will buy a new Android or Blackberry. Apple is missing the boat by not offering it on Verizon, they are losing out now and even more in the future, if no change is made.
The biggest nugget is the 40% marketshare figure in France. That figure first was reported by Katie Huberty of Morgan Stanley a while back, when she upgraded her price target over $200.
Stop waiting for the Verizon iPhone. They passed on it once and are now playing a brinksmanship game that's pretty much ensured that the iPhone will NEVER come to their network. As will be shown again yet today, Apple is making money hand over fist with their exclusive contract with AT&T. And they only have to negotiate with one familiar group. The iPhone still holds elite status, makes tons of cash, and is the gold standard for what can be achieved. Sure, things change, but it ain't happened through two versions of the iPhone and it's not likely too for a good long while.
Don't hold your breath if you are waiting for the iPhone to come to Verizon. Have you SEEN the commercials Verizon is running lately? That take direct shots at Apple and AT&T.
Don't hold your breath if you are waiting for the iPhone to come to Verizon. Have you SEEN the commercials Verizon is running lately? That take direct shots at Apple and AT&T.
Don't hold your breath if you are waiting for the iPhone to come to Verizon. Have you SEEN the commercials Verizon is running lately? That take direct shots at Apple and AT&T.
Don't hold your breath if you are waiting for the iPhone to come to Verizon. Have you SEEN the commercials Verizon is running lately? That take direct shots at Apple and AT&T.
Maybe my prayers have been answered! I have been loyal to Sprint since 1996 but want an iphone. Do you stay loyal or switch just for a phone.
Please extend to Sprint.
Funny how it takes high priced analysts to 'make news' on a report that any idiot two years into a finance degree could have told us.
Launching iPhone on AT&T was smart, moving away from exclusivity ASAP is even smarter. AT&T will suffer as clients return to better networks *cough* Verizon *cough*.
Hurry up Apple. I want my iPhone, but I'm not willing to leave Verizon to wander around in the wireless wilderness again. Tried it once. Never again.
I do not see this happening unless Verizon decides to offer GSM capabilities. Apple sells the GSM iPhone all over the world; I do not think it makes sense for them to design a CDMA iPhone for the U.S. domestic market so that Verizon can get on the iPhone band-wagon. Apple's time and resources will be better spent in designing the next generation iPhone so that it remains the smartest smart-phone in the market. As long as they continue to do that the Verizon users will have no option but to switch. I am also making the implicit assumption that AT&T's network will eventually improve over time and will be as good as Verizon sooner than later.
I do not see this happening unless Verizon decides to offer GSM capabilities. Apple sells the GSM iPhone all over the world; I do not think it makes sense for them to design a CDMA iPhone for the U.S. domestic market so that Verizon can get on the iPhone band-wagon.
Apple's time and resources will be better spent in designing the next generation iPhone so that it remains the smartest smart-phone in the market. As long as they continue to do that the Verizon users will have no option but to switch.
I am also making the implicit assumption that AT&T's network will eventually improve over time and will be as good as Verizon sooner than later.
Yeah all this AT&T bashing. I know their network hasn't been the best on the 3G side but still more reliable than CDMA.
I can show you so many holes in Verizon's network where they claim they have 100% coverage it's not even funny and I left them because of poor CS as well.
Wake up folks Verizon just spit at Apple in their newly launched Driod ad campaign. Verizon is going all-in with Google Android and has stated other app stores would not be preloaded on phones - Users would need to go through Verizons app store. Piper Jaffray is consistently wrong!!!
Wake up folks Verizon just spit at Apple in their newly launched Driod ad campaign. Verizon is going all-in with Google Android and has stated other app stores would not be preloaded on phones - Users would need to go through Verizons app store. Piper Jaffray is consistently wrong!!!
Wake up folks Verizon just spit at Apple in their newly launched Driod ad campaign. Verizon is going all-in with Google Android and has stated other app stores would not be preloaded on phones - Users would need to go through Verizons app store. Piper Jaffray is consistently wrong!!!
Has anyone been watching TV? Verizon is talking sh*t about the Iphone. Verizon Iphone, yeah right.
"I wan't the phone on Verizon" for what? Have you really tested both services at the same time? I have. Verizon is no better. Today I got 4 dropped Verizon calls.
I've had an iPhone for a while now and ATT for even longer (att-cingular-att). I don't know if ATT got a bad rep. before the switches with Cingular and it just stuck, or what, but service has been great- this time around. First time I had ATT it was horrible. I switched to Cingular only to have Cingular change to ATT- I protested at first, but I have no problems with ATT now. my friends with Verizon are always complaining but I have nothing to say against ATT.
I don't get the Verizon love either. That companies customer service stinks, and it nickel and dimes you.
I think Apple would be better serviced keeping with AT&T, but also adding T-Mobile. That is enough choice for most.
It's theoretically possible for apple to create a single device that supports both CDMA and GSM (a unified device like Verizon's world phones). If they are able to move past the hurdle that is multiple frequencies across multiple bands and keep it in a small package, they could own the market with a single device. I imagine this is the one reason they aren't hot after a deal with verizon.. they don't want to make multiple phones.
verizon, sprint and t-mobile talk a big game right now, but for all their showboating they'd all kill to have next june's iphone on their sales sheet.
believe me, verizon would tell moto and the droid to take a hike if they could get an at&t-style iphone deal right now.
What do I think?
i think an LTE iPhone more likely than a CDMA phone. And it is yet to be proven that Verizon or ATTs LTE will be more robust as it starts out. CDMA is a short term dead end.
Verizon does offer GSM capabilities on several models, including the Blackberry Storm, so they work in Europe for example. Couldn't they do the same with an iPhone - having to work on both CDMA and GSM networks?
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artik daha rahat hareket edebilecek ve bu sorundan kurtulacaksiniz. Sizinde cosmodisk denemenizi tavsiye ediyoruz.
Deterjansiz camasir yikama gercek oldu.smart ball sayesinde artik
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Zayiflama hapi Red pepper ile kilolarinizdan hizli ve etkili
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Kendinize guvenerek gulumsemenin en etkili yolu parlak dislerdir.
Erkeklerin kendine guvenmesi her zaman onemlidir. penis buyutucu
ile penisiniz her zaman iri olsun mu?
Formulu mehmet oz tarafindan hazirlanan santevit acai berry ile
diet yapmadan zinde kalmak elinizde. tek yapmaniz gereken duzenli bicimde kullanmak.
Bel ve sirt agrilarinizdan kurtulmak ister misiniz?cosmo disk ile
artik daha rahat hareket edebilecek ve bu sorundan kurtulacaksiniz. Sizinde cosmodisk denemenizi tavsiye ediyoruz.
Deterjansiz camasir yikama gercek oldu.smart ball sayesinde artik
deterjana para vermenize gerek yok.
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A blog on the daily doings of Apple and the many companies in its orbit, with insight and analysis by two longtime Apple-watchers BusinessWeek Senior Writer Peter Burrows and BusinessWeek.com Senior Technology Writer Arik Hesseldahl.
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