Analysts Estimate Weekend iPhone Sales

Posted by: Arik Hesseldahl on June 22

By all accounts weekend unit sales of the iPhone 3G S have been setting records in all the markets where they’re available, and now Wall Street analysts are giving their estimates. In conversations over the weekend I heard whisper numbers as high as 1 million units, though I think that is probably high.

Here’s what the analysts have to say this morning:

Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: “We spent Friday at Apple stores in New York and Minneapolis quantifying the iPhone 3G S launch. Early sales indications including our survey results, comments from carriers, and lines at stores were more positive than we were anticipating. …The only true benchmark for judging the launch of the iPhone 3G S will be the time it takes Apple to sell 1m units (assuming the company announces the 1 millionth unit). Apple sold 1m 1st gen iPhones in 74 days and 1m iPhone 3G units in 3 days. … Our early read on iPhone sales for the first weekend is about 750,000 units.”

Yair Renner, Oppenheimer Equity Research: “Lines for this year’s launch were about a third as long as last year, a fact likely explained by four factors: the ability to pre-order; the lack of a price cut; the separate launch of the $99-8GB iPhone; and prior assurances by AT&T and Apple that products would be plentiful. … Compared to the 3G launch, the 3G S debut was more about sparking replacements (for Apple) and service renewals (for AT&T) then landing fresh customers (a task better left to the $99 model). 55% of buyers already had an iPhone (33% last year); 25% were new to AT&T (37% last year). … We estimate that 400K-500K 3GS iPhones were sold in the first weekend. 1M 3G iPhone’s were sold in the opening weekend last year, but this year’s launch was geographically limited (8 countries vs. 21) and staggered (with the $99-8GB model launching earlier).”

More as they come in.

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