The No Stevenote Macworld: What The Analysts Are Saying

Posted by: Arik Hesseldahl on December 17

Here’s a quick roundup of observations from various analysts commenting on Apple’s decision not to have CEO Steve Jobs appear in his customary keynote address at the Macworld Expo in San Francisco on Jan. 6.

Gene Munster, PiperJaffray:

“Apple could have diffused speculation regarding Steve Jobs’ health by having him keynote this year’s Macworld. While we do not believe that this change provides any indication regarding Steve Jobs’ health, we do believe that it is a sign that we are in the early stages of changing roles in Apple’s management structure….Predicting product announcements for this year’s Macworld has been somewhat of a mystery. With Phil Schiller delivering the keynote, we believe it suggests there will not be any revolutionary products at this year’s event. Possible new products include an updated iMac and/or a redesigned Mac mini. We continue to expect a new form factor iPhone in the March quarter. We initially thought there was an outside chance that a new iPhone could be announced at Macworld, the news regarding the keynote leads us to believe that a new iPhone at Macworld is less likely.”

Charles Wolf: Needham and Co:

“This change is bound to once again raise questions about Jobs’ health. Our reliable sources, which we spoke with this fall, indicated that Jobs is cancer-free. Apple increasingly is introducing new products at company-sponsored events, such as the new MacBook, iPod Touch and iPod Nano, at two events this fall. I think Apple wants to get away from the tyranny of MacWorld where it is forced to introduce new products on IDG’s schedule, rather than its own.”

Shaw Wu, Kaufman Brothers:

“We believe Apple just decided that MacWorld just wasn’t worth the investment and Steve’s time. With the tough economy not helping, we are seeing many companies also making the decision that trade shows just aren’t as useful and effective anymore. … We have received questions ranging from Steve Jobs’ health to the potential for lack of big product announcements. From our checks with Silicon Valley sources, Steve is in good health, at least as one can expect as a survivor of pancreatic cancer. Our sources tell us he is as active as ever in running Apple and as a board member of Disney. … While it is possible that this year’s MacWorld announcements will have less of a “wow” factor, we continue to pick up from our industry and supply chain checks of many exciting new products in development and beyond prototype stage. We will talk about this in future notes.”

Mark Anderson, Strategic News Service:

“There are at least two ways to take this: a cutback in expensive physical presence at a time when everything is going online; or, Steve is not looking good physically, and is unwilling to go through the intense examination of his health condition which occurred after the last MacWorld. Unfortunately, I don’t think the first is the correct choice. The final decision here may become clear when the speaking agenda for the Apple WorldWide Developers’ Conference is made public. But I cannot think of any reason for Jobs not to appear at the next MacWorld, regardless of new strategies, other than his health. There are people who think that Apple can continue without Jobs. I personally think this is impossible.”

Andy Hargreaves, Pacific Crest Securities:

“Negative reaction to this announcement is silly. … Apple’s withdrawal drives an approximately 0% change to our future earnings expectations. Jobs’ decision not to participate has no implications for his health, in our view. We have no basis to draw this conclusion, so we won’t. Apple’s changing customer base has reduced the value of third party trade-shows. Apple is very clearly a consumer focused company at this point. With that in mind, conferences and trade-shows are a less effective means of reaching the company’s core customer base. … Likely confirms that there will be no new products announced at Macworld 2009. We believe Jobs would participate if Apple was launching a totally new product. So, this likely confirms our expectation that Apple will refresh existing products at Macworld, rather than launch an entirely new product.”

Michael Gartenberg, JupiterMedia/Mobile Devices Today:

“It’s clearly the passing of an era but I don’t think this is that major in terms of news for Apple. Over the last several years, Apple has downplayed the importance of Macworld as an event (and stopped attending the east coast show some years ago before that event ceased to exist). Apple, unlike many other companies has the ability to draw audience of press and analysts as needed. In addition, the Apple retail experience is a good showcase for consumers who want to see Apple products up close. As for Steve Jobs as a no-show? I’d expect this to be a pretty tame Macworld in terms of news. If you’re expecting a major announcement in January, you’re going to be disappointed.”

Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer; A notable downgrade:

“We don’t know why Steve Jobs has pulled out of his annual address at Macworld on January 6. Maybe he’s not feeling well, or maybe he just has nothing new to say. Whatever the reason, the unexpected announcement has underscored the greatest risk to Apple’s long-term success—its dependence on Jobs’ health and its apparent lack of a succession plan. … We acknowledge that there are probably purely commercial reasons for Jobs’ decision to skip Macworld in ‘09 and have Apple skip it altogether thereafter. Given Apple’s scale and reach, it no longer needs Macworld to gather the media for a product launch, for it can do so alone, on its own schedule. … Still, the de facto cancellation of Jobs’ annual address to the faithful reminds us that we still know nothing about his health or any potential succession plan. While we are unable to assess the probability of a sudden Jobs departure, we believe that if it does occur, it could leave the company in disarray.”

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