iPhone vs Android: When It Comes To Wooing Developers, Don't Underestimate the First Mover Advantage

Not just first mover advantage, but first MONEY advantage. The App store moved 100 million downloads in the first 60 days and is averaging $1 million per day. Then there's the dev who made $250K in the first 60 days with a $4.99 game!

It's probably going to be at least a year before anyone has an end-to-end solution with development, marketing, distribution & sales like Apple. By then there will be around 40 million iPhones in the wild.

At this point in time, there are no Android phones even for sale yet, and when they do go on sale, they will be with the smallest network and only 20 3G markets.

Now if AT&T and Apple are getting crucified for lame 3G coverage in 200 markets, what is going to happen to T-Mobile with only 20 markets?

First mover indeed.

First mover is an advantage now. In 20 years time? I hope you do remember Apple history for a bit longer back. Furthermore the mobile phone market moves very fast. Every year includes newer models with real improvements. So 40 million units doesn't mean anything. There are already more then 3 billion mobile phones worldwide. Most customers don't really care about iPhone or Android. What they do care about is choice. ANd Android has the future there. Android is the platform where anyone can basically join the consortium of hardware and software. Apple is well.. just Apple all alone. That's not enough of a model for market domination.

The biggest issue facing Android developers will be ensuring cross hardware compatibility. Either they develop to the lowest common denominator or a very specific hardware model. What makes iphone development both creative and feasible is the consistent end user experience. Until Android forces a base line hardware spec, application development on the Android platform will not gain any significant market traction.

First mover advantage? Look back a few years to the Sony Betamax. It came to market with a walled garden approach limiting who could use, manufacture, sell, etc. A bit later the VCR came out....open and free standard for all manufactures. Even though Betamax was superior technically look at which one prevailed and became the videotape standard. "Those who forget the mistakes of the past are condemned to repeat them." (G. Santayana)

Gwilz,

Your comparison to Betamax is flawed. VHS became standard, because more software became available for it (especially porn).

In the case of smartphones, first mover advantage definitely applies. It is also the value of the installed base. The more iphones are sold, the more valuable the platform becomes to App developers. Google is assuming that Android's openness will increase the size of the installed base. That remains to be seen since the Android experience is far inferior to the iPhone experience, in the same way the iPod experience is far superior to any other MP3 player.

Jack,

We agree that software was what drove VHS as the standard and I think we also agree that with smartphones; software too will dictate.

I see a direct parallel with what Matsushita (VHS)did to morph Sony Betamax by opening their VHS manufacturing standard to all. This was the catalyst that drove software. Sony's prohibition of industry wide manufacturing of its Betamax, and control of its 'software', was the death knell of Betamax.

Remember when the Motorola RAZR was the most awesome phone ever...

It's a loss-leading market where every two years people expect a new and more unique phone.

You have to look at mobile phone consumers as meth addicted adhd circus monkeys.. they only care about what is shiny and awesome and "in" right at this exact moment.

No way! iPod are above normal MP3 players?? In what world? iTunes is a trainwreck; drag and drop anyday! I've had both the iPhone and the G1, and I can already tell you that the massive amount of customization Android gives *alone* will pull in a larger buyer market than just AT&T customers who can afford iPhones (and their horribly overpriced data plans). Besides, iWhatever is so old news by now anyway; most people are aware of it's inability to receive a simple picture message (even *after* jailbreaking!), or take any video, it's inherent inability to EVER work with Flash. I hated the fact that I can't just put something on my iPhone and be done, it has to be synched, so it doesn't matter if I *ever* plan to watch it on my computer ever, it has to stay there, otherwise it is 'synched' off. Not very 'smartphone,' if you ask me.

I got HTC Magic and sold Iphone for peanuts, I really believe in new standard for mobiles. Android is great...WELCOME