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What? A Disaster Already?

Posted by: Arik Hesseldahl on August 08

I’m not sure how Paul Kedrosky can reach this conclusion — perhaps he’s been playing the Henry Paulson “Strong Dollar” Drinking Game a little too much lately. In the video embedded to the left he tells Sarah Lacy on Yahoo’s Tech Ticker that Apple’s Back-To-School season is going to hurt. Consumer spending is hitting other brands like Sony, HP and Dell, and therefore Apple’s going to blow it too. Consumers are balking at Apple’s relatively higher up-front price — and yes the machines are a little higher compared to the competitive set. Apple, he says, sells “aspirational products,” that are too extravagant for the current economic environment.

Balderdash. Perhaps he hasn’t been paying attention to computer industry market trends, which Apple continues to defy, (though perhaps “set” is the proper word.) In Apple’s last earnings report we learned that Apple’s share of the PC market has grown to about 8.5% according to Gartner. Apple’s year-on-year unit growth in the second quarter was 38%, more than 3 times the rate of growth at Dell, nearly 7 times the rate of growth at Hewlett-Packard, 13 times the rate of growth at Toshiba, and more than 9 times the rate of growth for the PC industry as a whole in the U.S.

Sure there’s reason to be a little cautious when consumer sentiment is at or near historic lows. This is at least part of the reason that during Apple’s earnings call last month CFO Peter Oppenheimer warned that gross margins would be off by a few points over the year several quarters. A few points of that lower guidance will probably come from aggressive prices. But don’t forget that “new product transition” that we all know is probably some kind of notebook that will make rivals in the Windows camp look flat-footed once again. I don’t know how Kedrosky can so readily bat that away as though it doesn’t matter because it won’t happed until September.

Huh? Apple always debuts a batch of new products in September. Apple’s back-to-school sweet spot isn’t K-12 school kids, who need all new clothes and pencil cases from Wal-Mart in late August. Apple’s target is college kids flush with financial aid checks, lured by free iPods and student discounts whose school-season buying won’t be in full swing until mid-September anyway.

Oh, and? Microsoft’s Windows Vista continues to win few friends, despite what it ham-handed Mojave Experiment would like you to believe. As has been the case for a year or more now, half of those who buy a Mac at an Apple retail store describe themselves as “new to the Mac.”

Paul: Apple’s Back-To-School quarter will be just fine. Not just fine, but excellent. Watch.

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Reader Comments

Synthmeister

August 8, 2008 01:30 PM

Yes, Apple's back-to-school quarter could be crap, but not for the reasons he gave.

If he had even glanced at Apple's last quarterly earnings report he would have seen that Apple's "aspirational products" have been clobbering the PC industry throughout this entire economic slump.

Apple is blowing chunks with MobileMe right now, but everything else is humming along just fine.

Right now the App store alone looks like it will have a multi-billion dollar halo on iPhone/touch sales as well as Mac software development.

zato

August 8, 2008 02:17 PM

And Apple will soon have lower cost desktops with new technology for workstation performance, maybe.

KenC

August 8, 2008 03:00 PM

And, worse yet for Vista, is the revelation at the Black Hat conference taking place now, that Vista has a fundamental flaw in its architecture that will not be easy to patch. Check out the neowin.com website for the original article.

Bracco

August 8, 2008 04:34 PM

These cost arguments must run in cycles. I keep seeing the same thing pop up over and over again like it's breaking news.

There are plenty of other things to fault Apple on, however pricing hasn't been in this category for a while now. How else would Apple's dramatic growth be explained? If their products were overpriced, sales would be off. Period. People buy because of perceived value, but even direct hardware comparison shows the pricing is right.

Furthermore, since this seems to be a hot topic these days, there was a fairly comprehensive article over at Tom's Hardware on the "Mac Cost Misconception". Their conclusion: Macs are competitively priced. This school season will be very good for Apple, especially when the ad campaign for Vista seems to be "See, it's not so bad after all..."

Thomas Carley

August 8, 2008 04:40 PM

I suggest that Mr.Paulson check out Credit Suisse Outperform
rating of Apple computer. Personally I'll go with Credit Suisse as they are a much more reliable source than Mr. Paulson.

Bill Burkholder

August 9, 2008 07:44 PM

Well, he speaks as one who has never been a Mac user or familiar in any way with Apple products. Ever been in an Apple store, Mr. Paulson? Been there in the last month? Even been near an Apple store in the mall in the last month?

I'm bullish on Apple and have been since the dark days of the Gil Amelio era. I wish I'd bought 1000 shares of Apple in 1997! I'd be sitting pretty right now.

Apple as a company are responsible for more truly innovative, paradigm-shifting products and services than most of the rest of Silicon Valley. They are true leaders, and are increasingly respected as such. If you haven't tried an iPod, iPhone, or MacBook, you have no idea what Apple is about.

What they ARE about is simplicity, elegance, ease of use, phenomenal customer service at the Genius Bar, and the best user experience on the planet. Are they perfect? No. They laid an egg with Mobile Me, and they have minor quality control issues from time to time. But they tend to get things right more often than anyone else, and it really shows.

I'll bet they have a phenomenal back-to-school season, and a phenomenal holiday season as well.

ray

August 9, 2008 08:44 PM

What software do you get with a new Mac?... iLife (iPhoto, iMovie, GarageBand, iDVD, iWeb), full version of the OS that's able to connect to a business domain. Let's take a look on the PC side... shareware, crippleware, trialware and an OS that can't connect to a business domain unless you pay extra, hmmmm...

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A blog on the daily doings of Apple and the many companies in its orbit, with insight and analysis by two longtime Apple-watchers BusinessWeek Senior Writer Peter Burrows and BusinessWeek.com Senior Technology Writer Arik Hesseldahl.

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