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Gene Munster: New iPods in Sept; No MacBook Touch, Yet.

Posted by: Arik Hesseldahl on August 06

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has a note out today predicting a special Apple event in September focusing on new iPod and MacBook models. He notes that “On average shares of AAPL have risen 4% from the week before to the week after this event and +47% from the week before to four months after.”

He says to expect new iPod models, specifically a bump in iPod shuffle capacity, but he thinks a redesign of either model is less likely. This might contradict Cliff Edwards’ “in the wild” sighting of a device that appeared to be a new iPod nano. Munster argues instead that it may be the iPod touch that gets redesigned. “We believe theiPod touch may be redesigned and may enter the $199 price point, in line with the iPhone.”

His other point: Buying in advance of Apple’s special September events has proven to be a pretty solid move. If you consider the history of the last three such events, the stock has gained an average of about 47% within four months of that event. The biggest move was in the wake of the 2005 special event, the one which marked the debut of the first iPod nano. Four months later, the stock was up nearly 60%.

That’s a much better event-driven bet than MacWorld, which as I argued in January, has proven a much riskier bet. I measured it differently, looking at Apple’s trading history on the day of Job’s MacWorld keynote going back to 1999, and found that the stock improved an average of 4.68% on the day of the keynote and by an average of nearly 22% within 10 days. But once you take out the trading results of 2001 and 2007 both of which had unusual results, you end up with Apple stock actually dropping by about 4% both on the day of the event, and within 10 days. Using the figures in Munster’s note, the average MacWorld move in Apple stock is +0.7% and from the day before MacWorld to a week later it’s +3.65%.

One other interesting point about touch screens. Munster thinks a touchscreen-enabled MacBook is unlikely this year. He does think such a product is being tested but he thinks it’s more likely to be a “2010 event.” He goes on to say that “ultimately, we expect Apple to develop a full touch-screen MacBook, although not until the technology has fully matured over the next 2-3 years… We believe multi-touch is a core differentiator of Apple products and Apple has adequately protected its innovations in order to maintain a leading edge…”

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Reader Comments

Mark U.

August 6, 2008 07:20 PM

Puh-leeze let go of the idea of a touchscreen laptop. It simply isn't a viable product due to the vertical-screen orientation of laptop. The poor ergonomics of working with your arms outstretched far outweighs, negatively, the relatively small inefficiency of working with mouse and keyboard. Not to mention which, the Mac OS X UI isn't designed, functionally, for touch. Why do you think the iPhone OS X UI looks different from the Mac OS X UI? The number of things you can effectively do via touch in the Mac OS UI, ergonomics aside, is so small that that can be done via the trackpad, and Apple is already shipping that product.

No, if Apple ships a touchscreen Mac, it'll be a tablet, and that won't happen until Apple has a touch UI worked out that is suitable for larger computing tasks, and larger screens, than the iPhone. And that's not happening tomorrow either.

Eugene V.

August 7, 2008 10:16 AM

I think that's is unlikely that Apple will lower the price for Ipod Touch to $199 price range to be "in line with the iPhone", as iPhone $199 price point is subsidised by contract with phone carrier (AT@T). However, without a doubt, lowering the price in $100 range would be in line with the pricing trend and a great sales and popularity boost for Apple. One of the really important unique features of iPhone and iPod Touch is the quality of their video playing, which keeps all other competitors phones way behind. And that is missing out in most of the comparison reviews.

Perry Clease

August 7, 2008 10:27 AM

I see that Apple has an education special going on until the middle of September. Buy a Mac and get a free iPod, also a pretty good discount on Creative Suite. This leads me to think that they are trying to reduce inventory, not that Apple keeps a lot in stock.

Time will tell

F Jensen

August 7, 2008 06:30 PM

@ Mark U, agree completely. The idea of a fully touch-screen comp has cool factor out the wazoo but it just isn't practical. I mean, I do a lot of editing on my mac as well and I gander that micro-functions like that would be a MESS in touchscreen. You wouldn't even be able to SEE the playhead as you're dragging it cause your hand would be in the way. The hand is far clumsier than the mouse -- any decent touchscreen functionality has to find a way around this.

Perry Clease

August 7, 2008 07:24 PM

"Puh-leeze let go of the idea of a touchscreen laptop. It simply isn't a viable product due to the vertical-screen orientation of laptop"

That got me thinking. Is it feasible to have touchscreen keyboard, one separate from the "monitor", a keyless keyboard if you will.

There would be some pluses such as changing the keyboard for a particular language, it would be "backlit", allow for a thiner MacBook, or open up space for internal components. Geez you could switch it between a keyboard and drawing tablet.

On the downside there would certainly be a learning curve.

Mike Stringer

August 8, 2008 04:18 PM

@ Perry, here is your "touch screen keyboard, without keys":

http://www.wacom.com/cintiq/index.cfm

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A blog on the daily doings of Apple and the many companies in its orbit, with insight and analysis by two longtime Apple-watchers BusinessWeek Senior Writer Peter Burrows and BusinessWeek.com Senior Technology Writer Arik Hesseldahl.

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