3G iPhone Chatter Picking Up

Posted by: Arik Hesseldahl on March 26

I’m not prepared to read too much into these, but they certainly do sound interesting. First, MacRumors today notes a report from iPodObserver concerning an interview with Gartner analyst Ken Dulaney saying that he’s hearing from sources in Asia that Apple has already ordered 10 million iPhones capable of running on 3G networks. One potential feature he says is that the new phone will boast a screen that uses organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technology in the display. If that’s correct, it would among other things cut the power consumption on the unit. This is crucial because the 3G chipsets are still rather power hungry in comparison to the chipsets in the current iPhone, and that the result leaves battery life unacceptably short. Cutting down the power needs of the screen might go a long way making a 3G-ready iPhone a more realistic proposition.

Second, and potentially more interesting, when seen in the context of Dulaney’s comments, is that HuffingtonPost has discovered that iPhones are running in short supply at the three Apple stores in Manhattan. Now either its suddenly selling really well, or something else is up. Longtime Apple-watchers often consider shortages as the first sign that a product update is near.

My theory has long been that Apple will have to disclose the second version of the iPhone in much the same way it did the first: Way ahead of availability. The reason is that before it can be released, it has to be approved by the Federal Communications Commission, and the FCC’s testing can take weeks or months, and very often photos and specifications of the devices submitted for testing leak to the public. The guys at Engadget Mobile even had a tag for it: FCC Friday.

That in mind, my conjecture has been that Apple will disclose its second iPhone in the spring of this year, say late April or early May, and perhaps release it at the end of June as before. Or, the other logical period for a new iPhone release would be in the fall, where it would coincide with the annual refresh of the iPod lineup. If I were to pick the likelihood of one versus the other, I’d probably go with the summer scenario. The iPhone and iPod may be siblings, but the iPhone, being the big deal that it is, gets its own separate product launch and marketing push.

A few more factors come to mind. Google and its Android hardware partners are expected to have their first handsets out of the gate either in the summer or fall of this year. Good as the iPhone is, Apple won’t be able to sit on its laurels, especially if phones running Android are 3G-ready.

Update: Commenter Jim points out that HuffPo is describing iPhones as “sold out” at all three Manhattan stores. Additionally, Cory Bohon at TUAW reports that Apple’s online store is showing shipping delays of five to seven days on the iPhone. Hmmmm.

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