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Pepsi's Challenge to iTunes: Who Will it Help?

Posted by: Peter Burrows on January 14

Most of us Boomers remember when the first Pepsi Challenge ads hit the TV networks back in the 1980s. I’m not sure who really believed Pepsi was winning all those blind taste-tests, but the campaign helped the company rise to become a strong No. 2 in the sugar-water business.

Now, Pepsi has launched a massive promotion with Amazon.com, which the big labels hope will establish the e-tailer as the strong No. 2 to Apple in digital music. As we reported last week, Pepsi will give away up to one billion songs (or CDs, movie downloads or other products). For the next year, most Pepsi beverages will include a code that counts for points that are redeemable at PepsiStuff.com.

I don’t think this promotion alone will make Amazon a digital music power—but it’s certainly a necessary step if the e-tailer is to achieve that goal.

The company has cleverly positioned itself as both a counter-weight to Apple (which let it land contracts to sell non-DRMed music from all four of the big labels), and as beneficiary of Apple's success (because it can sell all that non-DRMed music to iPod owners, unlike other service providers whose music only plays on less popular devices). But to really find out how strong a No. 2 it can be, Amazon needs more than just the plaudits it has won within the blogosphere. It needs just this kind of mega-mainstream marketing blitz. Even if most of the songs are never redeemed, all of the media attention and advertising means Amazon won't fail for lack of name recognition. "Clearly, this is as much about building the brand as it is about getting near-term sales,” says Mark Watson, senior vice president for The Marketing Store, a branding consultancy.

But if Amazon is a potential winner, that doesn't make Apple the likely loser--certainly not in the near-term. If there's any hit to iTunes market share, it won't be painful (In fact, I imagine Jobs would welcome some downtick in share, if only to quell talk of its monpolistic abuses.). Watson figures a 10% redemption rate--100 million songs--would be a homerun of a result for Pepsi. But that's just 5.3% of the roughly 1.9 billion songs analysts expect Apple to sell on iTunes this year. More important, as others have pointed out, the songs sold on Amazon would be 100 million more reasons for people to love their iPod, or to go out and buy one. (By the way, while I have not seen his speech, I bet Jobs will point out at some point tomorrow that Apple was less than thrilled with its own massive, $100 million promotion with Pepsi in 2005--the proof being that it hasn't done another one. He may not give figures, but here's what I've heard: only five million songs were redeemed).

Consumers will be another winner. iPod owners will have an alternative to iTunes, from an e-tailer that knows how to take care of its customers. My hunch is that we'll see a ton of Pepsi-drinking iPod owners say "thanks for the free tunes" a year from now, and go back to buying from iTunes (that is, unless Amazon opens up a broader price advantage with iTunes. It now sells most songs for $.89, versus $.99 for Apple).

So who are the losers? Once again, it's those hapless labels. According to the New York Times, three of them (Sony BMG, EMI and Waner Music) agreed to slash their price to $.40 a song for the promotion, rather than the $.65 or so they normally get. I'm not saying the labels shouldn't lower their prices; I agree with those that think their best hope is to make their catalogs so cheap that hundreds of millions of people think little of paying a few bucks or watching a few more ads each month to get them (see Yahoo's Ian Rogers insights in this presentation). But this price-cut to support the promotion isn't about making revolutionary changes to industry practice; it's about luring consumers into a status quo pricing model. "The labels still haven’t learned the lesson of Napster. They still want it to be like the good old days, when they controlled pricing. That's a fallacy in the digital world," says Larry Iser, an entertainment lawyer with Kinsella, Weitzman, Iser, Kump & Aldisert.

So here's my hunch: a year from now, Amazon will indeed by a strong, healthy No. 2 to Apple in digital music. But Apple will still be calling the shots--and music labels will still be complaining about it.

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Reader Comments

dennis

January 14, 2008 08:26 PM

Who really cares?

First off, the target audience and demographics? Teens and tweeners.

Do they watch the superbowl? NO

Does Apple market to them? Yes.

Is Amazon cool? Not unless you are old, and the teens and tweeners don't do amazon.

Not hip, not cool.

What is the price point break?

$.10. Who cares? And have you tried downloading from Amazon? I have.

iTune Music Store is it.

I am 45 years old. I have been using iTunes since it came out.

I would go anywhere else.

Why?

It just works. It is cool.

Sheez if is want books I will go to Amazon.

For music downloads, iTunes Music Store.

Bea Fields

January 14, 2008 10:34 PM

According to a study by Outlaw Consulting, Gen Y (who makes up 72 million buyers), and Apple is number 1 on their list. I don't believe I saw Pepsi or Amazon on the list. I think Gen Y will have a huge influence on this campaign. You can grab the Outlaw report on this blog link: http://www.millennialleaders.com/blog/?p=66

Tom

January 15, 2008 01:21 AM

How soon people forget... Apple ran iTunes song promotions with Pepsi, starting with Superbowl ads already in the past. Been there, done that. In fact it was a flop, and I'd be surprised if Pepsi approached them again Apple would agree to do it again.

Pepsi executed their side of the promotion disastrously, I would expect the same poor execution again this time. Last time, even if you were actively looking for Pepsi products that had the caps that had redeemable codes, they weren't in stock. Because of regional bottlers, some regions never got to play at all, others only started 1 month after the promotion ended. The other factor was the retailers, who only had massive amounts of pre-promotion product stock on hand, so while the promotion was fresh, right after Superbowl, NO ONE had the promotional products stocked on their shelves yet.

BUT this time, the recall this has been done before is lost, instead we're fed this big STORY how Amazon is gonna topple iTunes since Pepsi is running a replay of the iTunes song giveaway promotion with their store this go around. Whatever...

Saurabh

January 15, 2008 06:16 AM

As content creators with a focus on new and emerging media, we understand the challenges surrounding the monetization ability of digital content. In this light the debate around protecting content from ‘unauthorised’ downloads / usage has intrigued me right from the beginning both as a consumer as well as a creator.
While iTunes and more recently even sections of Bollywood have been able to sell DRM protected content and reaped moderate benefits, introducing the idea of ‘paid’ digital media to consumers, DRM implementation is still hobbled by lack of universal standards, high costs and overstated efficacy. As a Short Form Content developer in India, we have evaluated DRM specifically in our context (SFC) as opposed to the holy grail of digital content. And we believe, A new medium needs a new idiom. The success of the quirky creative endeavors has been fuelled by a viral internet platform. The content creators allow (via their web sites / channels] users to carry (embed) their work and share it with the rest of the cyber world without paying a penny.

This massive traffic and organized distribution has created new markets and made it easier to access the old ones. For some amateurs there may not be much after a short spate of viewership but a serialized, well marketed amateur video can evolve into a brand (lonelygirl15). I strongly feel Internet is a beautiful medium to help content travel to various markets and demographics. Instead of locking it down be prepared to re-purpose / re-orient your product to any distribution channels such as Mobile or even Print.

(comments posted by: saurabh@phonethics.in)

mark G

January 15, 2008 09:38 AM

Dennis,

you are absolutely right. Amazon is not focusing on their core.

Phio

January 15, 2008 12:34 PM

Pepsi and itunes, the best of both worlds, ipodpop.com lol!

SLA

January 15, 2008 03:10 PM

No DRM... smart...
I would rather be smart than cool.
Old guys like Dennis must like being stick in "cool" and limited land!

wyly

January 15, 2008 11:52 PM

You people still just don't get it do you. Subscription music is the only way to go...the great juke box in the sky. But you'll never try it, so you'll never know. Long live Napster 4.0

Dennis

January 16, 2008 11:12 AM

SLA,

DRM doesn't concern major demographics.

Try taking an economics class.

Joe Q public, want ease of use and doesn't concern themselves with the technical side.

DRM concerns are only for those whom share their music with others and were probably the hacks that caused DRM to be implemented in the first place.

And SLA, old? Any time you want to compare portfolios and homes, vehicles and toys, bring it.

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A blog on the daily doings of Apple and the many companies in its orbit, with insight and analysis by two longtime Apple-watchers BusinessWeek Senior Writer Peter Burrows and BusinessWeek.com Senior Technology Writer Arik Hesseldahl.

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