Relax, Wall Street -- Trust in the Mac. So Says Gene Munster, Anyway.

Posted by: Peter Burrows on January 22

Apple shares took a beating today, falling 11.38% as of right now. All this despite a 57% increase in earnings, and a blow-out quarter for Mac sales that was sullied by iPod sales that were disappointing—but not awful.

We’re doing a full story analyzing the day’s events, but here’s the basic explanation: Wall Street got hung up on Apple’s skimpy forecast for Q2 earnings, despite knowing full well that Apple always offers up skimpy forecasts. Yes, Apple’s forecasted earnings were 15% below consensus estimates, compared to the 9% difference that Apple has typically guided to over the past seven quarters, according to Piper Jaffrey analyst Gene Munster. But then, we are heading into a possible recession. It makes sense that a company that routinely lowballs would do so even more at a time of such uncertainty.

But Munster, like many of other people I spoke with today, is focusing on the positives. He noted, for example, that Apple’s position in the PC market is so strong right now that it’s enjoying a rare luxury: its unit growth is accelerating, at the same time that customers are paying more for its products. Average selling prices for Macs rose 7% from the previous quarter—while unit sales grew in a quarter that is typically flat. “You don’t usually get ASP growth and unit growth at the same time. Usually they go in the opposite directions,” he says.

But if that’s the general direction of the trend, what about its intensity? Munster believes Apple picked up a half a point of market share of the global PC business, ending the year with 3.5% of the global market (That number is higher in the US market alone, especially if you only count US consumers and leave out big markets like corporate servers where Apple hardly plays).

Given its current momentum, Munster is betting that the company will pick up a full point of share in 2008. So what can a measly “one percentage point” do? Plenty, when you’re talking about a $250 billion market. If his prediction comes true, Apple will add another $4.2 billion in revenue to its top line, and an additional dollar on top of the $5.30 earnings-per-share that many analysts are expecting for the year (at least as of this morning, before the latest news). Munster’s prediction: “If Apple gets to 4% (PC market share), its’ stock will go above $200.”

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