iPhone Rumors All But Confirmed?

Posted by: Arik Hesseldahl on November 15

A Chinese language newspaper, The Commercial Times, is reporting that Hon Hai Precision Industry, aka Foxconn, the company that builds the iPod for Apple, has secured a contract to build 12 million “iPod handsets.” Of course Hon Hai hasn’t commented for the record on the report, and as usual Apple isn’t saying anything, and wouldn’t if you pilfered one from the factory and showed it to them.

Personally I’m so sick of the iPhone rumor, which goes back years, that I’m beyond the point of caring. Almost from the minute the iPod first saw the light of day 61 months ago, the rumors first about an iPod-PDA and then the iPhone have been incessant.

John Markoff of The New York Times did an extended story on the potential for the iPhone in August, 2002, and the rumor of the phones existence has run hot and cold ever since. Right now we’re clearly in a “hot” phase of this rumor cycle, and based on all the available evidence, its pretty clear there’s something to it. By this point, the impact of a Steve Jobs confirmation at Macworld in January will have about all the surprise of opening a birthday present you watched your Mom buy at the store. By now you’d think that the release of an iPhone would be so widely expected that it would fact would have been priced into the stock by now.

Not so, says Andy Neff of Bear Stearns. Assuming that the 12 million unit figure is correct, and assuming that the iPhone cannibalizes about 30% of the iPod market — an estimate I think is large — the device could add 70 cents per share in earnings to Apple’s EPS and as much as $6 billion in sales in for fiscal 2007. When all is said and done, Apple could end up with 3% of the global market for wireless phones, just like that.

But this leaves me wondering if Steve will have any real surprises at Macworld. The iPhone? Expected. The larger-format screen video iPod? Expected. iTV? Already shown, and therefore expected. What’s left for Steve to surprise us with this January?

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Reader Comments

Terrin

November 15, 2006 06:29 PM

Steve very infrequently surprises anyone anymore. He tries, but leaks prevent him from doing so. Speculation is cool, but rumors really do spoil the fun.

Paul

November 15, 2006 09:21 PM


I hate to point out the obvious, but Apple's ability to surprise will have more to do with the actual implementation than any foreknowledge of the product.

Sure, if this report has any merit, everyone will be expect the "iPhone." But so what? It's how Apple makes the iPhone that will be important. I don't think anyone would argue that the iPhone would flop if it's just a warmed over ROKR or RAZR. People are expecting something different, and this is something that will have people waiting in anticipation.

Just take the example of the nano. Everyone knew Apple had a flash-based iPod up their sleeves, but almost everyone was expecting Apple to stuff flash memory into a mini's body. The nano SHOCKED people despite the fact that everyone "knew" it was coming.

Hopefully, Apple can pull of something similar with the iPhone, the iTV, and who knows, maybe Jobs will have "one more thing" up his sleeves too.

jbelkin

November 16, 2006 03:45 AM

This has to be of the most interesting business phenomenons of all time - a mythical product that the company has pretty denied working on until very recently and basically just saying, we're working on lots of things without actually sayinga nything ... but yet, thousands blog about it - hundreds have created mock ups (how many other mythical products have hundreds of mock ups plus the requite a thousand blogs analyzing the kerning of the mythical box to determine the P and O are too far apart to be a real Apple mock up :-), analysts start and create rumors ... it's one thing if it's a 2 week thing but as you point out 4 years later ... if when it comes out, it would be great fun to read about Apple' actual timeline and process and the alternative universe one in the mind of fanatics, bloggers, gossipers and their reality ...

Alan

November 16, 2006 06:29 PM

If you knew what was left to be surprised by ... it wouldn't be a surprise. Obviously, what's going to surprise you, you have no idea about.

mark

November 16, 2006 11:05 PM

It'll be all the things attached to that iPhone (iPod "name") and iTV and Leopard/Mac, and how they all work together seamlessly (hint: iChat, iWeb, .Mac, MobileMe). See my post to your next blog entry.

My question here is, besides Leopard, will MWSF really have any direct Mac news? New Mac form factors? If not, should its new name be AppleWorld or the Apple CES (Consumer Electronics Show)?

Ricky

November 21, 2006 02:19 PM

Personally, I think the hype is so big that there is no reason for them not to create an iPhone. Though I do agree if it is some rewashed KRAZR it will flop undoubtibly

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A blog on the daily doings of Apple and the many companies in its orbit, with insight and analysis by two longtime Apple-watchers BusinessWeek Senior Writer Peter Burrows and BusinessWeek.com Senior Technology Writer Arik Hesseldahl.

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