Steve Jobs, His Pedestal, And USA Today

Posted by: Arik Hesseldahl on December 21, 2005

“Sometime in 2006, Steve Jobs will probably get hosed.” That’s a prediction from USA Today’s tech columnist Kevin Maney. He chalks it up to playing the odds, figuring that no one can maintain the public’s adoration much longer than Jobs has without taking a nosedive.

Maybe. But Maney forgets that Jobs has been up, and down, and up again, and down again more times than than a “whack-a-mole.” Sure, Steve’s star may lose a little of its shine in 2006. A disappointing product launch at January’s Macworld Expo could do some temporary damage.

Anyone remember the PowerMac G4 Cube? It was said to be Steve's idea for the start, but suffered from design flaws: It was aimed at pros who typically demand expanability, but wasn't very expandable. It didn't sell well. But many of the basic principles -- such as a streamlined tabletop design -- survived to live another day in another product, the Mac Mini. Jobs's basic idea first expressed in the Cube, proved in time to be more correct than incorrect. This is a guy who learns well from his mistakes.

And there is a plenty of room for mistakes if the rumors about Apple's intentions toward the living room prove true. But others -- namely Microsoft and its hardware partners -- have already made plenty from which to learn.

For another example look at the iPod. How many other brand-name gadgets have been
lampooned on Saturday Night Live, after all? It wasn't the first MP3 player on the market. But here Apple improved on products that had already been on the market for a few years, learning from the mistakes of others. Pre-iPod players loaded music so slowly, it seemed hardly worth the effort to get one. Apple added a key-feature: a blazing fast Firewire connection -- not to mention that terrific design -- that put all the others to shame.

It seems to me that if Steve Jobs gets "hosed" this year in any sense of the word it might come more from public fatigue at what many may consider simple over-exposure, and that SNL spoof may telegraph a hint of the public mood. Counting all the variations, I think there was something six different launches of products in the iPod family in 2005. Too much of a good thing may be wonderful, but it can also be, a little much. I've watched Apple professionally for something like seven years, and even I started to lose track of which iPod was which.

But his name now carries weight not just in the world of personal computers, but in consumer enterMaybe he'll stumble, but who doesn't? Certain decisions from the past may turn out in hindsight not to have been correct, an important deal may not materialize, a product may bomb....

But it's only after a stumble or failure that a manager or leader shows his or her true mettle. Anyone who knows the barest outline of the Steve Jobs story knows what kind of mettle he has, and how in failing, he often sets himself up for greater success. If Maney's right, and Jobs looks somehow "hosed" during 2006, start expecting a comeback in 2007. It'll only be a temporary condition.

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