Markets & Finance

How 10K Boosts the Dow's Track Record


The blue chip benchmark's latest move into five-digit territory dramatically lifts its long-term performance

What a difference seven months can make. On Oct. 14, the Dow Jones industrial average closed at 10,0015.86, 53% above its recent low of 6547.05 on Mar. 9. While the blue chip benchmark remains 29% below the all-time peak of 14,164.53 it reached in October 2007, the current rally has elevated its long-term historical performance stats—and not just over the short term.

Consider this: On Mar. 9, 2009—219 days earlier—the Dow's 100-year track record was an average annual increase of 4.5%. That track record as of Oct. 14 was an average annual increase of 4.7%. The 20-basis-point difference between the two constitutes dramatic change. Compounded, it adds up to 2,195 percentage points. In other words, $1,000 invested in the Dow grew by almost 22,000 additional dollars over the 100 years.

Over smaller time periods, the difference is obviously more significant. Historical performance over the previous 20 years averaged 5.4% per annum on Mar. 9, 2009, vs. 7.0% on Oct. 14, 2009—compounded, the difference between the two is more than 100 percentage points.

Average annual percentage change in the Dow Jones industrial average

As of

10/14/2009

3/9/2009

1 year (Since 2008)

7.6%

-45.0%

2 years (Since 2007)

-15.7%

-27.0%

3 years (Since 2006)

-5.7%

-15.8%

4 years (Since 2005)

-0.7%

-11.8%

5 years (Since 2004)

0.2%

-8.9%

6 years (Since 2003)

0.3%

-2.8%

7 years (Since 2002)

3.5%

-6.6%

8 years (Since 2001)

0.9%

-5.9%

9 years (Since 2000)

-0.2%

-4.6%

10 years (Since 1999)

-0.3%

-3.8%

11 years (Since 1998)

2.1%

-2.4%

12 years (Since 1997)

1.8%

-0.6%

13 years (Since 1996)

4.0%

1.4%

14 years (Since 1995)

5.4%

3.6%

15 years (Since 1994)

6.5%

3.6%

16 years (Since 1993)

6.6%

4.0%

17 years (Since 1992)

7.0%

4.3%

18 years (Since 1991)

6.9%

4.5%

19 years (Since 1990)

7.8%

4.8%

20 years (Since 1989)

7.0%

5.4%

21 years (Since 1988)

7.6%

5.6%

22 years (Since 1987)

6.7%

5.0%

23 years (Since 1986)

7.7%

6.0%

24 years (Since 1985)

8.7%

7.1%

25 years (Since 1984)

8.9%

7.2%

26 years (Since 1983)

8.3%

7.0%

27 years (Since 1982)

8.9%

8.1%

28 years (Since 1981)

9.2%

7.0%

29 years (Since 1980)

8.4%

7.4%

30 years (Since 1979)

8.6%

7.1%

31 years (Since 1978)

8.1%

7.2%

32 years (Since 1977)

8.1%

6.2%

33 years (Since 1976)

7.4%

5.9%

34 years (Since 1975)

7.6%

6.5%

35 years (Since 1974)

8.0%

5.9%

36 years (Since 1973)

6.7%

5.4%

37 years (Since 1972)

6.6%

5.4%

38 years (Since 1971)

6.6%

5.4%

39 years (Since 1970)

6.8%

5.6%

40 years (Since 1969)

6.4%

5.1%

41 years (Since 1968)

5.9%

5.2%

42 years (Since 1967)

5.9%

5.0%

43 years (Since 1966)

6.1%

4.6%

44 years (Since 1965)

5.5%

4.6%

45 years (Since 1964)

5.6%

4.8%

46 years (Since 1963)

5.8%

5.1%

47 years (Since 1962)

6.2%

4.8%

48 years (Since 1961)

5.7%

4.9%

49 years (Since 1960)

5.9%

5.0%

50 years (Since 1959)

5.7%

4.9%

51 years (Since 1958)

5.9%

5.4%

52 years (Since 1957)

6.2%

5.2%

53 years (Since 1956)

5.9%

5.0%

54 years (Since 1955)

5.9%

5.3%

55 years (Since 1954)

6.2%

5.8%

56 years (Since 1953)

6.7%

5.8%

57 years (Since 1952)

6.5%

5.8%

58 years (Since 1951)

6.4%

5.8%

59 years (Since 1950)

6.6%

6.1%

60 years (Since 1949)

6.9%

6.2%

61 years (Since 1948)

6.8%

6.2%

62 years (Since 1947)

6.7%

6.0%

63 years (Since 1946)

6.7%

5.7%

64 years (Since 1945)

6.4%

6.0%

65 years (Since 1944)

6.7%

6.1%

66 years (Since 1943)

6.7%

6.1%

67 years (Since 1942)

6.9%

6.4%

68 years (Since 1941)

6.7%

6.0%

69 years (Since 1940)

6.5%

5.6%

70 years (Since 1939)

6.2%

5.5%

71 years (Since 1938)

6.1%

5.7%

72 years (Since 1937)

6.1%

5.0%

73 years (Since 1936)

5.7%

5.3%

74 years (Since 1935)

6.0%

5.8%

75 years (Since 1934)

6.4%

5.7%

76 years (Since 1933)

6.3%

6.5%

77 years (Since 1932)

6.8%

5.8%

78 years (Since 1931)

6.1%

4.7%

79 years (Since 1930)

5.1%

4.1%

80 years (Since 1929)

4.3%

3.9%

81 years (Since 1928)

4.7%

4.4%

82 years (Since 1927)

5.0%

4.6%

83 years (Since 1926)

5.2%

4.6%

84 years (Since 1925)

5.1%

4.8%

85 years (Since 1924)

5.6%

5.1%

86 years (Since 1923)

5.7%

4.9%

87 years (Since 1922)

5.4%

5.1%

88 years (Since 1921)

5.8%

5.2%

89 years (Since 1920)

5.5%

4.8%

90 years (Since 1919)

5.1%

4.9%

91 years (Since 1918)

5.4%

5.0%

92 years (Since 1917)

5.4%

4.7%

93 years (Since 1916)

5.1%

4.7%

94 years (Since 1915)

5.1%

5.2%

95 years (Since 1914)

5.3%

4.7%

96 years (Since 1913)

5.2%

4.7%

97 years (Since 1912)

4.9%

4.6%

98 years (Since 1911)

5.1%

4.6%

99 years (Since 1910)

4.9%

4.4%

100 years (Since 1909)

4.7%

4.5%

101 years (Since 1908)

4.9%

4.7%

102 years (Since 1907)

5.1%

4.3%

103 years (Since 1906)

4.6%

4.2%

104 years (Since 1905)

4.7%

4.4%

105 years (Since 1904)

5.0%

4.8%

106 years (Since 1903)

5.3%

4.5%

107 years (Since 1902)

4.8%

4.4%

108 years (Since 1901)

4.8%

4.3%

109 years (Since 1900)

4.9%

4.4%

Data: Bloomberg


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