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On deck: leading indicators, home prices, home sales, durable goods orders, and a ton of earnings reports
The second-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear this week, with 159 S&P 500 companies set to report. By the end of the week, half of the S&P 500 will have posted their results, offering a good idea of how the winners and losers are stacking up. For now, with only a scant 33 companies having reported, Thomson Reuters says earnings are expected to be down 14.7%, which would be the fourth consecutive quarter of negative growth.
The expected sector breakdown isn’t hard to figure. Energy and technology, currently projected to show gains of 28% and 16%, respectively, will lead the winners. The biggest loser will be financials, expected to post a whopping 72% earnings decline, similar to their first-quarter losses. The consumer discretionary sector, is projected to be down 20%, led by lots of red ink from auto makers. Homebuilders will actually be something of a plus for the sector, in that their second-quarter losses are expected to be half the size of those in the second quarter of 2007.
The week will offer plenty of news relevant to both financial companies and homebuilders. Given that falling home prices lie at the heart of the current dysfunction in the credit markets, Wall Street will be watching the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s home price index for May for any sign that the drop in home prices is either slowing down or still picking up steam. The week also offers reports on sales of new and existing homes. Both have shown some signs of stabilizing in recent months, but inventories are still high, and mortgage rates have backed up, eating into affordability.
One interesting feature of second-quarter earnings is that profits outside of finance are expected to hold up surprisingly well. Thomson Reuters says analysts project earnings, excluding the financials sector, to be up 8.3%, and even further omitting a big boost from the energy sector, the projection is still 2.9%. That’s clearly a modest performance, but it’s far from the broad earnings plunge typically seen in a recession. Right now, earnings guidance from the S&P 500 companies shows a 1.9-to-1 ratio of negative to positive earnings pre-announcements. That’s below the 2.3-to-1 ratio this time last quarter, and it’s also less than the long-term average of 2.1-to-1.
The second half is shaping to be more challenging for companies outside finance. Unexpectedly high gasoline and fuel prices are robbing the buying power of consumer incomes and negating the stimulus from the tax rebates. Plus, the latest round of financial upheaval implies the credit crunch is getting worse, especially for would-be homebuyers. Despite the Fed’s rate cuts, fixed mortgage rates are up more than a half point since April. And growth overseas, a crucial prop under economic growth and profits, is showing clear signs of slowing. As the pace of earnings reports picks up this week and next, investors will be increasingly focused on guidance for the third quarter and full-year 2008.
Here’s the weekly economic calendar from Action Economics.
Top Economic Reports
Reports
Date
Time
For
Median Estimate
Last Period
Leading Indicators Index
Monday, July 21
10:00 a.m.
June
-0.1%
-0.1%
Existing Home Sales (millions)
Thursday, July 24
10:00 a.m.
June
4.930
4.909
Durable Goods Orders
Friday, July 25
8:30 a.m.
June
0.1%
0.1%
New Home Sales (millions)
Friday, July 25
10:00 a.m.
June
0.508
0.506
Consumer Sentiment Index (final)
Friday, July 25
9:55 a.m..
July
55.0
55.1
Other reports and events
Other Reports and Events
Date
Time
For
ICSC-UBS Store Sales
Tuesday, July 22
7:45 a.m.
July 13-19
Johnson Redbook Weekly Store Sales
Tuesday, July 22
8:55 a.m.
July 13-19
SPEECH: Philadelphia Fed President Plosser
Tuesday, July 22
8:30 a.m.
Richmond Fed Survey
Tuesday, July 22
10:00 a.m.
July
OFHEO House Price Index
Tuesday, July 22
10:00 a.m.
May
Mortgage Applications
Wednesday, July 23
7:00 a.m.
July 13-19
SPEECH: Fed Governor Mishkin
Wednesday, July 23
9:00 a.m.
SPEECH: Fed Vice Chairman Kohn
Wednesday, July 23
11:15 a.m.
Federal Reserve Beige Book Report
Wednesday, July 23
2:00 p.m.
Initial Unemployment Claims
Thursday, July 24
8:30 a.m.
July 13-19
Earnings Calendar
Company
Report Date
Weatherford International Ltd
Monday, July 21
Bank of America Corp
Monday, July 21
Texas Instruments Inc
Monday, July 21
Hercules Inc
Monday, July 21
QLogic Corp
Monday, July 21
Equifax Inc
Monday, July 21
Boston Scientific Corp
Monday, July 21
Apple Inc
Monday, July 21
Hasbro Inc
Monday, July 21
Schering-Plough Corp
Monday, July 21
Merck & Co Inc
Monday, July 21
SanDisk Corp
Monday, July 21
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Regions Financial Corp
Tuesday, July 22
Quest Diagnostics Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Baker Hughes Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Forest Laboratories Inc
Tuesday, July 22
UnitedHealth Group Inc
Tuesday, July 22
SunTrust Banks Inc
Tuesday, July 22
CME Group Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Biogen Idec Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc
Tuesday, July 22
EI Du Pont de Nemours & Co
Tuesday, July 22
Fifth Third Bancorp
Tuesday, July 22
Wachovia Corp
Tuesday, July 22
Tellabs Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Rockwell Automation Inc/DE
Tuesday, July 22
Western Union Co/The
Tuesday, July 22
Keycorp
Tuesday, July 22
Caterpillar Inc
Tuesday, July 22
United Parcel Service Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Avery Dennison Corp
Tuesday, July 22
AK Steel Holding Corp
Tuesday, July 22
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Nabors Industries Ltd
Tuesday, July 22
E*Trade Financial Corp
Tuesday, July 22
Sigma-Aldrich Corp
Tuesday, July 22
Broadcom Corp
Tuesday, July 22
Washington Mutual Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Norfolk Southern Corp
Tuesday, July 22
Pactiv Corp
Tuesday, July 22
Boston Properties Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Waters Corp
Tuesday, July 22
BJ Services Co
Tuesday, July 22
Halliburton Co
Tuesday, July 22
Lockheed Martin Corp
Tuesday, July 22
Linear Technology Corp
Tuesday, July 22
SUPERVALU Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Lexmark International Inc
Tuesday, July 22
XTO Energy Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Stanley Works/The
Tuesday, July 22
Intuitive Surgical Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Precision Castparts Corp
Tuesday, July 22
PACCAR Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Omnicom Group Inc
Tuesday, July 22
Yahoo! Inc
Tuesday, July 22
PepsiCo Inc
Wednesday, July 23
Ryder System Inc
Wednesday, July 23
New York Times Co/The
Wednesday, July 23
Sovereign Bancorp Inc
Wednesday, July 23
Travelers Cos Inc/The
Wednesday, July 23
McDonald's Corp
Wednesday, July 23
Praxair Inc
Wednesday, July 23
Whirlpool Corp
Wednesday, July 23
WellPoint Inc
Wednesday, July 23
Dover Corp
Wednesday, July 23
Philip Morris International Inc
Wednesday, July 23
Wyeth
Wednesday, July 23
Boeing Co
Wednesday, July 23
AT&T Inc
Wednesday, July 23
Unisys Corp
Wednesday, July 23
ConocoPhillips
Wednesday, July 23
Air Products & Chemicals Inc
Wednesday, July 23
Robert Half International Inc
Wednesday, July 23
McKesson Corp
Wednesday, July 23
QUALCOMM Inc
Wednesday, July 23
Teradyne Inc
Wednesday, July 23
Noble Corp
Wednesday, July 23
CR Bard Inc
Wednesday, July 23
Allstate Corp/The
Wednesday, July 23