Markets & Finance

Analyst Actions: LoJack, Chordiant Software, Omega Healthcare


From Standard & Poor's Equity ResearchJPMORGAN CUTS ESTIMATES, KEEP UNDERWEIGHT ON LOJACK

JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster says LoJack (LOJN) lowered 2008 revenue and EPS guidance, citing a continuing weakness in domestic auto sales (especially in Southern California) and weaker-than-expected growth in international markets in the first quarter. He says the announcement is consistent with his thesis that LOJN will continue to face industry-wide headwinds in 2008 as domestic auto sales slow amidst a tightening credit environment.

Coster notes LOJN lowered $232-$239 million revenue guidance to $213-218 million, and $1.10-$1.20 2008 GAAP EPS guidance to $0.75-$0.85; he says it no longer expects a second half 2008 rebound in domestic auto sales due to the accelerated decline in the first quarter.

He cuts $1.17 2008 EPS estimate to $0.79, and $1.28 for 2009 to $1.08.

OPPENHEIMER CUTS ESTIMATES FOR CHORDIANT SOFTWARE

Oppenheimer analyst Brad Reback says Chordiant Software (CHRD) now sees a second quarter loss per share of $0.11-$0.16 on $23.5-$25.0 million revenue, which compares with his former estimates of $0.11 EPS and $31.2 million revenue. He notes CHRD cited a weakening macro environment and longer sales cycles across the board, but particularly in financial services (in the U.S. and UK).

Given CHRD's cautious commentary, Reback says he would expect CHRD to cut fiscal year 2008 (September) bookings guidance of $140-$150 million when it posts final results May 6.

He lowers his second quarter revenue and EPS estimates to $24.6 million and $0.07 loss. He also cuts fiscal year 2008 revenue/EPS estimates to $120.4 million and $0.28 from $130.9 million and $0.50; fiscal year 2009 to $130.5 million and $0.38 from $150.1 million and $0.50. He notes his fiscal year 2009 estimates are fully taxed. He maintains an outperform opinion on the stock.

UBS FINANCIAL DOWNGRADES OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS TO SELL FROM NEUTRAL

UBS Financial analyst Omotayo Okusanya tells salesforce no longer comfortable with view that Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI) faces low risk from Haven bankruptcy (9% of OHI's portfolio). The analyst says in past week, providers of $50 million debtor-in-possession financing have become more reluctant to fund Haven through its restructuring, and a potential sale of assets is not expected to generate enough proceeds for Haven equity (and possibly debt) shareholders.

Okusanya notes that per its bankruptcy filings, Haven is generating $2 imllion a month less than its operating costs due to declining occupancy, higher SG&A, no increase in Medicaid reimbursement rates, and high bankruptcy admin expenses.

The analyst cuts $1.48 2008 adjusted funds from operations estimate to $1.40, and $1.58 for 2009 to $1.54.


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