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Where Will Housing Recover First? Would You Believe D.C.?


Intriguing predictions from John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting:

With so much doom and gloom in the market, we are going to focus on the positive this month. Here are our favorite markets. We are certain that there are great opportunities in almost every market in the country.

Favorite First-to-Turn-Around Markets: Washington, D.C. Orange County (California), San Diego, and Northern and Central New Jersey will follow shortly thereafter. All are low-supply markets that have been down for a while and have good economies. All markets in the country will suffer from the coming surge in ARM resets though, so our bullishness on these markets is temperate.

Favorite Long-Term Markets: Phoenix, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Orlando are where the current growth is and where future growth will be. These markets are competitive, however, so you have to be one of the best builders in town to make some good money. These markets were speculator favorites too, so their corrections this year will be steep.

Favorite Market After Housing Bottoms: We like Boise, where there are no national builders and the growth will be huge. Employers and consumers are discovering that Boise is a great place to live, and local leaders are embracing growth. This seems like a good place to buy distressed land after speculators hand the title to the bank.

Favorite Fairly Priced, Highly Competitive Markets: Austin, Denver and Raleigh-Durham. Strong demand for finished lots in good locations will benefit these markets over the long-term. All three did not participate in the housing boom earlier this decade because they were hit hard by the technology job losses. Accordingly, they are not overpriced and now most technology businesses are doing well.

In the past, we have been amused by how some people interpret analysis such as this to mean that all investments in these markets will pay off. Do your homework please! The more research you do, the more confident you will be in your investment.


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