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February 13, 2007

Who's hot, who's not

Dean Foust

Zillow.com just released a new report assessing the trend in home values across the country. Granted, you could question the accuracy of Zillow’s findings, since it isn’t based just on home sales but on Zillow’s proprietary assessment of home values, but it’s still a fun exercise.

The bottom line: Zillow says nationwide, home values were down 0.5% year-over-year and values declined 4.77% in the fourth quarter alone. The folks at Seattle-based Zillow say it’s the first 12-month decline they’ve seen in their data, which goes back as far as 1997.

The three highest-appreciating metro areas over the past 12 months were:

-Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL (25.88%)

-Yuma, AZ (25.66%)

-Myrtle Beach, SC (21.24%)

And the three metro markets that suffered the largest year-over-year decline:

-Panama City, FL (-11.84%)

-San Luis Obispo-Atascadero-Paso Robles, CA (-11.35%)

-Punta Gorda, FL (-9.23%)

To read the press release with the highlights, click here.

For a look at Zillow’s national and local market data, click here.

11:29 AM

Housing Prices

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The problem with the Zillow Housing Report is we don't know the percentage of actual sales data to unsold zestimated homes. In areas where sales are down, the percentage will weigh heavily to unsold homes and the Report becomes in essence a Zestimate Report. Since the zestimates are untested (no sale has occurred to measure its error rate) that data is suspect and should not be a guide. In those same low sales areas where zestimates have high error rates you get a Zestimate Report of more dubious value.

I use this analogy: If actual sales are pure water and zestimates of unsold homes (of unknown error rates) are contaminates, do you want to drink from the glass containing mostly zestimates?

Posted by: jf.sellsius at February 14, 2007 10:35 AM

Considering Zillow overestimates how values by atleast 10% this shows just how far homes have dropped already. I am in California and many homes are Zillow are being listed and not sold below the range zillow gives, just how far off is zillow, I'd say around 10%-20% in accuracy here. And to think just wait till the end of summer, once their are almost as many foreclosures for sale as owner for sale, gonna be real ugly real soon.

Posted by: Tom K at February 14, 2007 12:22 PM

I really like the zillow site. I am not 100% about it estimated price of a upgrade home feature but in general it is nice to see what everyone else paid for there home.

Posted by: Cid Dennis at February 14, 2007 03:31 PM


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