Magazine

The BusinessWeek Economic Forecast Survey For 2007


THE BUSINESSWEEK ECONOMIC FORECAST SURVEY FOR 2007

Name/Firm

REAL GDP Quarterly % Chg. Annual Rate 2007

YEARLY % Chg. 2006 Q4 to 2007 Q4

2007 Q4 Levels (Percent)

HOME PRICES (% Chg. 2006 Q4 to 2007 Q4)

I

II

III

IV

REAL GDP

OPERATING PROFITS

CPI INFLATION

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

10-Yr. Treasury Yields

JOBLESS RATE

KATHLEEN CAMILLI Camilli Economics

3.5

3.2

3.4

4.0

3.7

7.0

3.4

5.25

5.50

4.5

5.0

ROBERT DiCLEMENTE Citigroup

3.0

3.7

3.2

3.5

3.3

6.0

2.4

5.00

4.80

4.6

.5

KURT KARL Swiss Re

3.9

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.3

8.7

2.4

4.50

5.00

4.5

7.0

JAMES PAULSEN Wells Capital Management

3.5

4.0

3.0

2.5

3.2

6.0

2.2

6.00

6.00

4.4

0.0

BILL CHENEY John Hancock Financial Services

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.1

6.0

2.5

5.25

5.00

5.1

5.0

MICHAEL ENGLUND Action Economics

2.6

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.1

5.3

2.7

5.75

5.20

4.2

4.8

JOEL PRAKKEN / CHRIS VARVARES Macroeconomic Advisers

2.9

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.1

5.9

2.8

5.25

5.05

5.1

1.2

DAVID TEOLIS General Motors

2.6

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

6.2

2.5

4.75

5.40

5.1

3.5

RICHARD YAMARONE Argus Research

3.1

3.3

2.6

3.5

3.1

15.0

3.3

5.50

5.00

4.8

10.0

DAVID LEREAH National Association of Realtors

3.3

3.1

2.8

2.8

3.0

8.0

2.0

4.75

5.00

4.8

2.5

ROBERT MELLMAN JPMorgan Chase

2.5

3.0

3.5

3.0

3.0

6.0

2.4

5.65

4.85

4.4

0.0

DONALD STRASZHEIM Roth Capital Partners

1.8

3.5

4.0

4.0

3.0

11.0

2.5

6.00

5.00

4.5

12.0

DIANE SWONK Mesirow Financial

2.4

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.0

6.2

2.1

5.33

4.90

4.9

3.0

MARK ZANDI Moody's Economy.com

2.5

2.9

3.0

3.3

3.0

5.3

2.3

4.75

5.10

4.8

1.5

DAVID BERSON Fannie Mae

2.8

3.0

3.0

3.1

2.9

6.0

2.7

4.58

4.65

5.0

2.8

RICHARD DEKASER National City

3.3

2.7

2.5

3.1

2.9

1.9

2.4

5.00

5.50

5.1

1.6

GENE HUANG FedEx

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.9

7.7

3.5

5.30

5.50

5.0

3.0

WILLIAM HUMMER Wayne Hummer Investments

2.5

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.9

NA

2.4

5.00

5.00

5.0

3.8

DEAN MAKI Barclays Capital

3.0

3.5

3.0

2.0

2.9

NA

3.4

5.90

5.05

4.3

NA

MICHAEL MORAN Daiwa Securities America

2.4

3.2

3.2

3.0

2.9

1.5

2.6

5.75

5.05

4.4

0.0

JOHN RYDING Bear Stearns

2.8

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

4.7

2.9

5.80

5.30

4.5

2.0

RICHARD BERNER / DAVID GREENLAW Morgan Stanley

2.3

2.7

3.1

3.2

2.8

1.4

1.8

5.25

4.78

5.1

1.0

WILLIAM DUNKELBERG Nat. Fed. of Ind. Business

2.9

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.8

5.0

2.3

5.00

4.80

4.8

10.0

STEPHEN GALLAGHER Société Générale

2.2

2.3

3.0

3.4

2.8

11.5

2.4

4.75

4.75

4.5

0.0

DANA JOHNSON Comerica Bank

2.5

2.7

3.0

3.0

2.8

6.0

2.1

5.25

5.40

4.8

NA

JIM MEIL / BILL ULLRICH Eaton

1.8

3.2

3.5

3.1

2.8

7.5

2.3

4.80

5.11

4.3

1.5

DAVID RESLER Nomura Securities International

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.7

2.8

3.0

2.2

4.92

4.57

4.8

3.5

DAVID SEIDERS National Association of Home Builders

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.8

5.7

2.4

5.00

4.90

5.0

0.5

JOHN SILVIA Wachovia

1.4

2.8

3.4

3.5

2.8

8.0

1.6

5.00

5.20

5.0

0.7

ETHAN HARRIS Lehman Brothers

2.5

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

7.0

3.5

5.25

4.80

4.7

0.5

DAVID KELLY Putnam Investments

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2.7

11.3

2.1

5.25

5.25

4.7

2.0

SUNG WON SOHN Hanmi Bank

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.8

2.7

5.9

2.6

5.25

5.00

4.5

2.0

MICHAEL CAREY Calyon Corporate & Investment Bank

2.0

2.4

3.2

2.9

2.6

6.3

2.7

4.75

4.78

4.7

0.3

GAIL FOSLER The Conference Board

3.0

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.6

3.0

3.5

6.00

5.00

4.8

NA

MICKEY LEVY Bank of America

1.7

2.4

3.1

3.4

2.6

3.1

2.5

4.75

4.80

4.9

2.5

GREGORY MILLER SunTrust Bank

1.4

2.4

3.1

3.5

2.6

16.0

2.9

4.50

4.90

5.4

2.0

JOHN POPE Investment Economics

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.8

2.6

14.3

3.5

4.75

4.80

4.9

5.5

ROBERT SHROUDS DuPont

1.5

2.5

3.0

3.5

2.6

3.0

2.6

4.65

5.00

4.9

0.0

NARIMAN BEHRAVESH Global Insight

2.8

2.2

2.6

2.4

2.5

7.4

2.6

4.50

4.55

4.9

1.4

KEITH HEMBRE FAF Advisors

2.2

2.6

2.5

2.8

2.5

3.0

2.0

4.50

4.50

4.8

5.0

STUART HOFFMAN PNC Financial Services Group

2.2

2.0

2.8

3.0

2.5

3.5

2.4

4.40

4.40

4.9

2.0

KEN MAYLAND ClearView Economics

1.4

1.5

3.2

4.0

2.5

1.2

2.4

4.50

4.17

4.6

2.5

ALLEN SINAI Decision Economics

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.9

2.5

7.9

3.1

5.26

4.72

4.9

5.0

CONSTANTINE SORAS GunnAllen Financial

1.6

2.6

2.9

3.0

2.5

5.9

2.3

4.75

4.59

4.6

1.3

ROBERT MCGEE US Trust

1.3

2.2

3.0

3.1

2.4

2.5

2.3

4.20

4.35

5.2

5.0

JOEL NAROFF Naroff Economic Advisors

2.3

2.1

2.8

2.4

2.4

3.0

2.3

4.25

5.00

4.5

2.3

NICHOLAS PERNA Perna Associates

1.9

2.4

2.4

3.1

2.4

4.7

2.7

4.94

5.44

5.0

3.0

JOSHUA SHAPIRO MFR

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.6

5.00

4.40

4.8

5.0

DAVID WYSS Standard & Poor's

2.9

2.1

2.1

1.9

2.3

5.7

2.6

4.70

5.00

5.0

3.0

MAURY HARRIS UBS

1.8

1.9

2.3

2.7

2.2

5.0

2.8

4.25

4.40

5.1

NA

JAN HATZIUS Goldman Sachs

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.5

2.1

2.3

2.8

4.13

4.68

5.1

3.0

TOM HIGGINS Payden & Rygel

1.5

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.0

10.0

2.5

4.50

4.50

5.2

3.0

KEVIN LOGAN Dresdner Kleinwort

1.6

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.0

4.9

2.4

4.24

4.36

5.1

2.5

PETER HOOPER Deutsche Bank Securities

1.5

1.9

2.1

2.4

1.9

9.0

2.1

5.00

5.00

5.2

0.0

LYNN MICHAELIS Weyerhaeuser

2.1

2.6

1.6

1.0

1.8

NA

3.8

4.80

5.30

5.4

8.0

WAYNE ANGELL Angell Economics

1.2

1.0

1.2

1.8

1.3

9.0

1.0

4.20

4.10

4.5

15.0

IAN SHEPHERDSON High Frequency Economics

0.0

0.0

2.0

2.5

1.0

8.0

2.5

3.60

3.70

5.6

2.0

JAMES SMITH Parsec Financial Management

2.2

1.4

2.6

4.6

0.7

6.1

0.8

2.50

4.14

5.0

4.7

CONSENSUS

2.3%

2.6%

2.7%

3.0%

2.6%

5.5%

2.5%

4.90%

4.88%

4.8%

1.7%

* Before-Tax Corporate Profits with IVA and CCA (NIPA BASIS), ** Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight House Price Index, Economist was a top five forecaster for 2006


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