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A Mixed Message On Foreclosures


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September 08, 2006

A Mixed Message On Foreclosures

Chris Palmeri

For those property watchers who are anxious to see when and if the sharp climb in interest rates and the slowdown in home prices is translating into widespread defaults in high-priced home markets, the latest data from oneline real estate information firm ProperyShark.com will give you no definitive answer. The site reports that New York City's 535 foreclosures in the second quarter of this year is a decrease of 6% from the prior quarter. Los Angeles saw a steep 11% increase in trustee sales, to 1,250. Foreclosing on a home in Los Angeles doesn't require the lengthy court time as New York, so for that reason L.A. is considered a harbinger of what might happen in other markets. Still, the majority of Los Angeles' forced sales were in Palmdale and South Central L.A., two lower-income areas where trouble should be expected in even the faintest downdraft. Once-booming Miami's 515 foreclosures puts it high on the list. On a percentage basis, a home in Miami is nearly four times more likely to be in foreclosure than New York. "South Florida is definitely one of the first regions we have seen to show clear signs of problems in the housing market,” says PropertyShark ceo Ryan Slack. At .066%, however, the foreclosure rate there isn't likely to spell doomsday for Miami's real estate market, not yet.

03:16 PM

Foreclosures

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This is completely misleading, a few cherrypicked stats from rare markets that aren't obviously crashing yet. Nationwide, foreclosures have already spiked at the VERY beginning of ARM resets (really just the tip of a historically huge iceberg) and during a period of very low unemployment. Six months from now when many thousands of more of these loans have reset and unemployment has risen due to the housing crash this foreclosure rate will be much much worse. By 2008 when over $2 TRILLION in ARMS and suicide loans have reset, blood will run in the streets! Even happy talk Money Magazine/CNN is ahead of you on this one: http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/13/real_estate/foreclosures_spiking/index.htm?postversion=2006091314

Posted by: Dave at September 15, 2006 12:56 AM

Here are some more headlines from TODAY ONLY on the explosion in foreclosures/housing crash for those who are interested in seeing what's happening:

Fri Sep 15 2006 California mortgage default rate quickens (centralvalleybusinesstimes.com)

Fri Sep 15 2006 LA area foreclosures rise (dailybulletin.com)

Fri Sep 15 2006 Florida has 50% increase in foreclosures from July (wftv.com)

Fri Sep 15 2006 Countrywide Loan Volume Falls 24% in August alone (yahoo.com) (this was when rates were falling, by the way)

Posted by: Dave at September 15, 2006 12:59 AM


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