Magazine

What The Fearless Forecasters See


Get used to single-digit returns, say the 67 stock market strategists we polled for their 2005 market outlook. They anticipate a gain of 6.8% for the Dow Jones industrial average in 2005 and 7% for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Investing abroad gained favor, with the consensus asset allocation for international stocks jumping to 18%, up from 14% last year. Strategists are listed according to their year-end Dow forecasts, from the most bullish to the most bearish.

SLIDE SHOW: Consensus Asset Allocations, And More ... >

FEARLESS FORECASTERS

FORECASTER

DOW JONES

S&P 500

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

RUSSELL 2000

ASSET ALLOCATIONS*

FAVORITE SECTOR

FAVORITE STOCK

TREASURY YIELD

Linked to forecaster's comments

Mid- year

Year- end

Mid- year

Year- end

Mid- year

Year- end

Mid- year

Year- end

U.S. stocks %

Intl. stocks %

U.S. bonds %

Cash %

Company name

Mid- year

Year- end

Peter Trapp

Bifrost Partners

11750

12750

1400

1500

1900

2000

700

800

40

40

0

10

Technology

Scor

6

6

Arvind Sachdeva

Victory Capital Mgmt.

10850

12500

1425

2600

790

62

0

34

4

Industrial Cyclicals

Newmont Mining

4.85

5.25

Elaine Garzarelli

Garzarelli Capital

12400

1420

100

0

0

0

Industrial Cyclicals

Merrill Lynch

4.5

Sam Stovall

Standard & Poor's

11795

12235

1255

1300

2245

2360

45

15

25

15

Financials

RPM Int'l

4.6

5

Mark Elenowitz

TriPoint Capital Advisors

11500

12000

1295

1350

2300

2400

680

710

65

20

10

5

Health Care

AXM Pharma

4.75

5

Larry Smith

Third Wave Global Investors

11250

12000

1250

1350

2300

2500

660

725

50

25

15

0

Technology

5

4.75

John J. Regan

Americal Investment Strategies

11009

11901

1253

1383

2345

2760

702

767

70

10

0

5

Technology

Dell

4.85

5.4

George Jacobsen

Trevor Stewart Burton & Jacobsen

11350

11800

1220

1275

2300

2400

660

700

80

0

10

10

Industrial Cyclicals

DeVry

5.25

5.75

Liz Ann Sonders

Charles Schwab

12500

11800

1400

1320

2425

2275

725

680

50

20

25

5

Energy

Cal Dive International

5

5.8

John Clarke

H.C. Wainwright

11235

11796

1248

1311

2253

2388

672

705

40

25

15

10

Technology

Multiband

3.97

4.29

Young Chin

Gartmore Global Investments

11194

11754

1221

1246

2169

2191

646

665

30

40

5

Energy

Starwood Hotels & Resorts

Tobias Levkovich

Citigroup Smith Barney

11700

1225

60

0

35

5

Health Care

Carnival Cruise Lines

4.6

4.75

Edward Yardeni

Oak Associates

11000

11700

1250

1300

2300

2400

690

750

65

15

10

5

Technology

eBay

4.2

4.5

Gary Tapp

SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

11010

11680

1223

1273

2206

2280

656

688

65

20

10

0

Industrial Cyclicals

Aetna

4.6

5

Arthur Hogan

Jefferies

11235

11663

1250

1297

2233

2353

665

690

60

10

20

10

Technology

Lions Gate Enterainment

4.53

4.9

Joseph Battipaglia

Ryan Beck

11100

11600

1250

1300

640

660

72

8

5

0

Industrial Cyclicals

Books-A-Million

4.5

5.25

Stuart T. Freeman

A.G. Edwards & Sons

11400

11600

1270

1300

670

682

65

10

20

5

Consumer Staples

Citigroup

4.75

5

Tim Leach

US Trust

11000

11600

1240

1285

2200

2250

660

680

44

11

20

0

Energy

4.75

5.25

James Wong

Payden & Rygel Investment Mgmt.

11100

11600

1290

1340

2350

2500

680

720

30

20

20

10

Energy

Ryland Group

4.5

5

Robert Morris

Lord, Abbett

11000

11550

1250

1301

2200

2301

660

695

75

15

10

0

Industrial Cyclicals

Telekom Austria

4.5

4.5

Allan Roness

ASR Corporate Consultants

11150

11505

1220

1255

2300

2450

670

700

60

15

0

15

Technology

Encore Acquisition

4.6

4.85

Richard Dickson

Lowry's Reports

11500

11500

1300

1300

2435

2100

675

605

70

30

0

0

Industrial Cyclicals

Wyeth

Gail Dudack

Sungard Institutional Brokerage

11550

11500

1325

1290

2400

2280

60

0

20

20

Energy

4.4

4.9

Vince Gallagher

Needham

11180

11500

1150

1305

2200

2350

680

710

70

10

0

20

Services

Bright Horizons Family Solutions

4.75

5.25

Hugh Johnson

First Albany Capital

10940

11500

1230

1300

2180

2300

650

680

100

0

0

0

Consumer Staples

Walt Disney

4.1

4.5

David Katz

Matrix Asset Advisors

11260

11500

1267

1295

2360

2400

672

685

70

5

15

10

Technology

Citigroup

5.2

5.5

Jeffrey Kleintop

PNC Advisors

11100

11500

1250

1300

2230

2320

660

685

57

13

25

5

Industrial Cyclicals

Wellpoint Health Networks

4.8

5

James Paulsen

Wells Capital Management

12300

11500

1375

1325

2500

2350

730

690

40

30

20

0

Technology

5.5

6

Tobin Smith

ChangeWave Research

11200

11500

1260

1280

2340

2380

673

50

30

0

0

Energy

Silicon Image

4.9

5.1

Roger DeBard

iGlobal Capital

11600

11490

1250

1224

2275

2223

670

663

40

5

15

35

Financials

Merrill Lynch

4.45

4.65

Charles Mayer

Pioneer Investments

10725

11470

1210

1270

2130

2205

680

707

65

10

20

5

Industrial Cyclicals

4.35

4.7

Charlie Crane

Scotsman Capital Management

11200

11450

1260

1280

2175

2250

635

650

90

0

0

10

Consumer Staples

Chubb

4.5

4.35

Ivan Gefen

vFinance

11000

11450

1240

1285

2210

2300

650

680

35

20

20

15

Services

4.35

4.5

Harvey Hirschhorn

Bank of America Investment Strategies Group

11000

11350

1260

1300

2275

2350

680

700

53

11

29

3

Industrial Cyclicals

5.15

5.25

Richard Sichel

The Philadelphia Trust Co.

11019

11350

1227

1264

2266

2311

65

0

35

0

Financials

Alliant Techsystems

4.5

4.85

Clare Zempel

Zempel Strategic

10925

11350

1200

1300

2175

2275

675

700

50

20

20

10

Health Care

Pfizer

4.75

5.5

Jason Trennert

ISI Group

11000

11300

1300

1350

2300

2450

675

710

65

10

10

15

Technology

Charles Schwab

4.5

4.5

Christopher Conkey

Evergreen Investment Mgmt.

11000

11250

1250

1275

2200

2250

650

675

50

25

20

5

Asta Funding

Richard Driehaus

Driehaus Capital Mgmt.

10900

11250

1240

1280

2150

2200

660

700

50

30

0

10

Energy

Digital Angel

4.65

4.75

John Leo

Northern Trust Investments

11025

11250

1240

1260

2175

2175

630

660

60

20

13

7

Industrial Cyclicals

Caterpillar

4.75

4.5

Barry Hyman

Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum

11000

11200

1250

1270

2200

2300

660

680

70

0

15

15

Industrial Cyclicals

Biogen IDEC

5

5.5

Rod Smyth

Wachovia Securities

11000

11200

1250

1270

660

680

40

25

25

10

Energy

4.5

4.75

Mark Jordahl

U.S. Bancorp Asset Mgmt.

10800

11175

1215

1260

2175

2250

645

660

48

18

28

0

Technology

Intel

4.5

4.75

Jack Ablin

Harris Private Bank

11384

11172

1280

1256

2298

2255

688

675

40

50

0

0

Health Care

5.6

6.15

Arnim Holzer

Deutsche Asset Mgmt.

10800

11145

1215

1275

2150

2200

650

660

55

15

20

0

Energy

4.6

5

Alison Deans

Lehman Brothers

11100

1300

711

26

25

18

0

Energy

5

Asher Plaut

Brill Securities

10950

11100

1470

1510

2250

2410

650

675

70

15

10

5

Health Care

Natus Medical

5

5.1

Vincent Sbarra

HPC Capital Mgmt.

10850

11050

1216

1252

2150

2232

583

590

40

5

5

15

Technology

Perma-Fix Environmental Services

4.4

4.65

Lawrence G. McMillan

McMillan Analysis

13200

11040

1320

1250

2650

2180

770

655

60

20

10

10

Energy

Cameco

5

4.4

Dorsey Farr

Wilmington Trust

11035

11035

1240

1240

2190

2190

655

655

26

18

20

0

4.75

5

Subodh Kumar

CIBC World Markets

11500

11000

1275

1250

2300

2500

625

650

36

31

17

5

Technology

Cisco

4.75

5

Tom McManus

Banc of America Securities

10700

11000

1200

1200

2250

2200

650

600

55

0

10

25

Energy

Apache

5

5.5

Jim Huguet

Great Companies

10750

10955

1205

1245

2355

2450

683

704

45

35

20

0

Financials

American International Group

5.1

5.25

Warren Bagatelle

Loeb Partners

10750

10950

1250

1350

2200

2300

640

650

65

0

10

7

Health Care

Pfizer

4.3

4.2

Wendell Perkins

Johnson Asset Mgmt.

10700

10950

1190

1225

2110

2170

634

639

30

40

10

10

Health Care

Multimedia Games

4.6

5

C. Kim Goodwin

State Street Research

10500

10900

1200

1250

2150

2210

613

625

40

25

30

5

Consumer Staples

Equity Office Properties Trust

4.8

5

William Greiner

UMB Investment Advisors

10800

10900

1250

1265

2200

2250

650

655

50

15

30

5

Industrial Cyclicals

Cintas

4.8

4

Sean Taylor

GAM

10100

10750

1050

1250

1850

2300

560

640

25

75

0

0

Services

WebZen

4.8

5.4

Jeffrey Knight

Putnam Investments

11200

10640

1235

1160

2160

2055

680

642

30

25

15

0

Energy

4.6

4

Robert H. Stovall

Wood Asset Management

10965

10625

1225

1365

2255

2175

637

628

40

20

15

10

Energy

Tiffany

Daniel Dektar

Smith Breeden Associates

10500

10600

1185

1195

2100

2000

640

645

15

25

15

15

4.6

4.8

David M. Joy

American Express Financial Advisors

10500

10150

1175

1150

2150

2035

625

610

30

40

20

10

Energy

4.75

5.35

Joseph Liro

Stone & McCarthy Research Associates

9650

10100

1150

2250

720

40

25

20

15

Technology

Intel

Barry Ritholtz

Maxim Group

11707

9703

1324

950

2620

1825

765

606

50

25

15

5

Financials

Interoil

4.95

5.5

Michael Painchaud

Market Profile Theorems

9200

8800

1035

990

1710

1620

490

450

30

10

10

30

Utilities

IMAX

4.6

4.95

Bernie Schaeffer

Schaeffer's Investment Research

9000

8000

950

825

1950

1600

575

550

30

15

15

20

Energy

XM Satellite Radio Holdings

4

3.75

ML Global Strategy & Economics

Merrill Lynch

1205

45

0

45

10

Utilities

3.6

3.85

Data compiled by Brian Hindo, Anne Tergesen, and Suzanne Woolley


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