) to buy from neutral.
Analyst Colette Fleming says she is updating her Nextel model to reflect fourth-quarter results, the company's guidance, and information from Nextel's 10-K filing. She says the primary changes to her model, which led her to raise the $15 target to $16.50, were higher subscriber projections in 2005 and beyond, and slightly higher average revenue per subscriber estimates.
Fleming says Nextel is among the fastest growing wireless operators in the U.S. She sees its three-year compounded annual subscriber growth rate (CAGR) at about 20% for 2003-06, and 15% for 2004-07. In terms of EBITDA, Fleming sees Nextel's three-year CAGR at about 50% for 2003-06, and 28% for 2004-07.