"The IMF Would Rate Us as Dangerous"

Q: What is your feeling about the housing market? Are we in a bubble, especially in places like Manhattan?

A: It is extremely difficult to forecast trends in the national housing market. The person I know who is best at this, Robert Shiller of Yale, actually consults in this area. His belief is that the housing market, on average, is overvalued. He is extremely reluctant to forecast the timing and scope of any declines that may occur. I have a house which I use mainly as a retreat, in a hot real estate area. What strikes me is that the housing market around this place is totally central to its culture. You can't go to a party, or have a conversation, in which house prices don't come up.

The Good Business Issue
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