Analyst Gordon Hodge says 1.147 million subscribers at the end of the second quarter (June) is in line with his 1.149 million estimate. He notes paying subscribers comprised 96% of ending subscribers, and national penetration of 1% rose from 0.9% in the first quarter, and 0.6% in the second quarter of 2002.
Hodge notes that in the San Fransisco Bay area, TV household penetration rose to 5%, from 4.6% in the first quarter and 3.2% in the second quarter of 2002. He based his outperform rating on an expected 50% increase annually in EBITDA and earnings per share over the next three to five years.
Hodge remains comfortable with estimates for 15 cents second-quarter earnings per share, $14.4 million EBITDA, and $64 million in revenues. He sees 30 cents 2003 earnings per share, $50 million EBITDA, and $263 million in revenues. He has a $30 12-month target.