), TIBCO Software (TIBX
), and SeeBeyond Technology (SBYN
) to underperform from neutral.
Analyst Greg Kleiner says he takes a more negative stance on the enterprise application integration sector as current prices do not reflect deteriorating fundamentals. He notes pricing is getting worse. He says in the past several months, customers are increasingly questioning the long-term viability of pure-play vendors; IBM Corp., BEA Systems, and Microsoft stand to benefit.
Kleiner says WebMethods is particularly vulnerable to TIBCO's new-found aggressiveness. He lifted his 2 cents fiscal 2004 (Mar.) loss estimate on WebMethods to breakeven, and sees a 1-cent loss for fiscal 2005. He cut the $196.9 million fiscal 2004 revenue estimate to $194.2 million, and sees $195.1 million in fiscal 2005. He also cut the $11.50 target to $7.50.