) shares fell after UBS Warburg downgraded them to neutral from buy.
Analyst Caroline Levy says recent conversations with distributors paint a soft picture for Coors and industry volume trends year-to-date. Levy says 2003 is shaping up to be another year of less-than-1% domestic beer industry volume growth. She believes Miller's share losses all are moving to Anheuser Busch (BUD
), accelerating BUD's competitive lead. She says second-quarter pricing trends in Britain for Coors looks sluggish, as well volume and pricing in the U.S.
Levy sees better results over time for efforts to improve execution, but current field feedback is disappointing. She sees EPS of $4.20 in 2003 and $4.90 in 2004. She has a $61 price target on Coors shares.