) to neutral from outperform.
Analyst David Cumberland says his downgrade reflects his belief that the motorcycle maker's near-term risks and rewards are balanced. He says volatile monthly industrial data may weigh on Harley-Davidson, especially since investors are particularly sensitive due to heightened expectations of the 100-year anniversary model year.
Also, Cumberland says he's seeing the recent usual sequential inventory build as the riding season winds down in many markets. He lowered his $67 target to $60. Cumberland says he continues to recommend the stock to growth-oriented investors given the company's long-term strength. He is keeping the 44-cent fourth quarter earnings per share estimate, the $1.85 estimate for 2002 and the $2.11 estimate for 2003.