Analyst Brent Thill says evidence mounts that the first quarter was one of the tougher quarters for application software companies -- companies such as PeopleSoft and i2 Technologies, plus others, pre-announced -- and for for broader IT spending (such as IBM's large miss) in his recent memory.
He says Siebel is not entirely immune from this macro-environment's unpredictable budget allocations. He cut his second quarter through fourth quarter sequential license revenue growth estimates to 8%, 8% and 11%, respectively -- bringing his year to year license growth estimate to 4%, down from 12% -- below Seibel's 15% guidance.
Thill also cut his discount cash flow-based target from $40 to $34. While keeping his buy rating, Thill says he would recommend more aggressive buying if the stock nears $20.