By Paul Cherney Note: Cherney on the Markets will not be published on Wednesday, Mar. 6. It will return on Thursday, Mar. 7.
So far, I have seen nothing technically to diminish my expectations that there is further to go to the upside over the next three to 13 trading days. (That means as few as three more trading days but possibly as many as 13 more trading days.)
Wednesday might see some weakness in the morning but then a base should develop. If this proves not to be the case and there is a headline which rattles nerves and sends prices lower, I still think for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 that the downside is limited to the supports mentioned below.
The Nasdaq has a thin shelf of support at 1859-1849, then more defined intraday support in the 1852-1832 area. This makes the 1852-1849 area a focus of support. Under 1832, the next Nasdaq support is at 1803-1770, and I do not expect this level to be tested in Wednesday's session.
For the second day in a row, the Nasdaq finished the session in a test of the 1842-1878 level of resistance; intraday resistance is a shelf at 1866-1886.15. The next layer of organized resistance (based on end of day charts) is 1901-1960, with a focus at 1915-1942.
The S&P 500 has a layer of support at 1147-1143 (which held in Tuesday's session). The index has more substantial support at 1127-1107 with a focus at 1127-1121. The "500" has a band of resistance which runs 1150-1177 (I changed this to 1177 from 1174 on Tuesday morning, Mar. 5, after reviewing the charts). The next resistance above that is 1190-1206.
I think over the next three to 13 trade days, the Nasdaq should be able to print 1915-1942 and the S&P 500 should get to 1190-1206. Cherney is market analyst for Standard & Poor's