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Table: BusinessWeek Economic Forecast Survey for 2002


NAME/Firm Percent Change in Real GDP

Annual Rate

4-Qtr. percent change GDP CPI Federal Funds Rate 10-yr. Treasury Yields Jobless Rate

2001

IV 2002

I

II

III

IV

2002 4Q/

2001 4Q 20024Q/

20014Q

2002 IV 2002 IV

2002 IV

ROBERT DiCLEMENTE Citigroup .8 1.0 3.1 5.9 5.2 3.8 2.0 2.50 5.55 5.5

RICHARD D. RIPPE Prudential Securities 2.0 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.5 3.8 2.9 3.50 5.50 5.8

JOEL L. NAROFF Naroff Economic Advisors 1.6 4.1 3.3 4.2 2.6 3.7 2.2 3.75 5.75 4.8

PETER E. KRETZMER Banc of America Securities 0.9 2.2 3.9 4.6 3.9 3.6 2.5 3.80 5.60 5.7

DAVID L. LITTMANN Comerica Bank 1.8 3.3 3.1 3.8 4.5 3.6 1.6 2.50 5.25 5.5

RICHARD YAMARONE Argus Research 0.9 2.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.5 3.6 4.50 5.70 5.1

MICHAEL R. ENGLUND Standard & Poor's MMS 1.0 1.0 3.8 4.0 5.0 3.4 2.7 3.00 5.25 6.2

DIANE C. SWONK Bank One 2.0 0.1 3.8 5.0 4.6 3.4 2.0 3.00 5.10 6.1

DANIEL E. LAUFENBERG American Express Fin. Advisors 1.6 3.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.7 3.00 5.30 5.5

ROBERT McGEE Tokai Bank 0.5 2.5 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.31 5.87 6.4

TIM O'NEILL Bank of Montreal/Harris Bank 2.0 1.0 3.4 4.1 4.3 3.2 2.5 2.85 5.90 5.6

IAN SHEPHERDSON High Frequency Economics 1.0 2.5 3.5 2.5 4.0 3.2 1.7 3.00 5.75 7.3

J. PRAKKEN & C. VARVARES Macroeconomic Advisers 2.0 2.5 3.5 3.3 2.9 3.1 2.2 3.67 5.34 5.8

DAVID RESLER Nomura Securities International 1.2 2.4 3.8 3.4 2.8 3.1 1.5 1.50 5.25 5.7

ROBERT SHROUDS DuPont 1.4 2.4 2.8 3.9 3.4 3.1 1.9 2.25 5.00 5.9

STEPHEN GALLAGHER Société Générale 1.5 1.0 2.5 4.5 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.60 5.60 5.7

BRUCE STEINBERG Merrill Lynch 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 1.3 2.65 5.25 6.1

THOMAS W. SYNNOTT U.S. Trust 0.0 1.4 2.8 3.3 4.4 3.0 2.9 2.25 5.20 6.0

RICHARD J. DEKASER National City 1.6 1.1 3.2 3.5 3.9 2.9 2.4 3.51 5.60 5.8

KEN MAYLAND ClearView Economics 1.1 0.0 3.3 3.8 4.4 2.9 2.2 2.62 5.42 5.9

DAVID W. BERSON Fannie Mae 2.4 0.7 2.4 4.0 3.9 2.8 1.8 3.25 5.03 5.7

BILL CHENEY John Hancock Financial Services 2.0 1.5 2.5 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.4 4.00 5.00 5.6

PETER HOOPER Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown 1.5 0.3 2.5 4.2 4.8 2.8 2.2 2.50 5.00 6.1

MICHAEL MORAN Daiwa Securities America 1.0 1.4 3.3 3.2 3.5 2.8 1.9 4.00 5.50 5.8

RICHARD BERNER Morgan Stanley 1.7 0.6 1.3 5.0 5.3 2.7 1.8 2.88 4.85 6.3

CONSTANTINE G. SORAS Biovest International 1.7 0.9 2.4 3.5 4.0 2.7 2.6 3.41 5.47 5.7

LAWRENCE GOODMAN Globalecon 0.7 0.6 2.9 3.2 3.7 2.6 1.7 2.50 5.80 5.7

JOHN LONSKI Moody's Investors Service 0.2 1.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 2.6 1.7 3.08 5.60 5.5

MICHAEL P. NIEMIRA Bank of TokyoMitsubishi 0.9 0.3 2.5 4.1 3.6 2.6 3.1 3.80 5.40 5.8

ROBERT H. SCHNORBUS J.D. Power & Associates 2.1 0.2 2.5 3.6 4.0 2.6 1.5 2.50 5.10 6.5

CHRISTOPHER LOW First Tennessee Capital Markets 0.5 1.3 2.7 2.9 3.2 2.5 1.7 1.75 4.70 5.8

SUNG WON SOHN Wells Fargo 1.5 0.2 2.6 2.8 3.5 2.5 2.4 2.25 6.25 5.4

JOSEPH LIRO Stone & McCarthy Research 0.0 1.0 2.5 3.5 4.5 2.4 2.8 1.96 6.00 5.6

MAURY HARRIS UBS Warburg 2.0 1.0 3.0 3.2 4.0 2.3 1.9 1.60 5.00 6.2

S. SLIFER & E. HARRIS Lehman Brothers 2.5 1.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.3 1.6 3.25 5.00 6.4

GAIL FOSLER The Conference Board 0.8 1.7 1.2 2.2 3.9 2.2 2.6 3.47 5.16 6.2

NICHOLAS S. PERNA Perna Associates 1.3 2.1 2.5 4.4 4.1 2.2 2.6 2.50 5.60 6.5

MARK ZANDI Economy.com 1.3 0.3 0.8 3.7 4.6 2.2 2.3 3.70 5.60 6.2

GENE HUANG Federal Express 0.5 1.2 1.7 3.7 4.0 2.1 2.1 2.50 4.50 6.0

IAN MORRIS HSBC Bank USA 1.5 1.5 2.0 4.0 4.0 2.1 2.0 2.10 5.25 6.3

WAYNE ANGELL Angell Capital 1.0 0.0 2.3 2.6 3.0 2.0 0.6 1.75 4.00 6.5

ANTHONY CHAN Banc One Investment Advisors 0.5 0.5 1.0 3.0 3.5 2.0 1.8 2.00 5.05 6.4

J. COOPER & K. MADIGAN BusinessWeek 1.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.8 2.00 5.10 6.7

WILLIAM C. DUNKELBERG Natl. Fed. of Indep. Business 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.0 2.7 1.50 4.80 6.0

STUART G. HOFFMAN PNC Financial Services 2.5 1.0 1.5 3.5 4.0 2.0 2.5 2.40 5.05 5.9

DAVID LEREAH National Association of Realtors 1.5 0.1 1.9 3.0 2.9 2.0 2.1 2.50 5.10 6.0

DAVID ORR Wachovia 2.0 1.0 1.2 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 2.13 5.20 6.5

JOSHUA SHAPIRO Maria Fiorini Ramierez 0.6 0.1 1.2 2.7 3.7 1.9 2.0 2.50 5.75 6.4

KEVIN LOGAN Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein 2.0 0.5 2.6 2.2 2.9 1.8 1.7 2.00 5.20 6.3

JAMES PAULSEN Wells Capital Management 1.0 1.0 2.5 1.5 2.0 1.8 0.9 1.40 4.00 6.2

STEVEN WOOD FinancialOxygen 1.0 2.0 1.5 4.0 3.0 1.6 1.8 3.30 5.10 6.3

WILLIAM C. DUDLEY Goldman Sachs 1.5 1.0 0.5 3.5 3.0 1.5 2.0 1.50 4.30 6.8

ROBERT A. BRUSCA Ecobest Consulting 1.5 1.4 0.3 3.6 2.9 1.4 2.8 2.00 6.00 6.4

KURT KARL Swiss Re 2.6 2.0 0.2 3.5 4.1 1.3 2.2 3.25 5.30 6.4

ALLEN SINAI Decision Economics 0.3 1.5 0.7 2.4 3.0 1.2 1.5 2.64 4.97 6.2

JIM COONS Huntington National Bank 2.6 1.7 0.6 2.5 3.0 1.1 2.5 3.50 5.40 6.2

LYNN MICHAELIS Weyerhaeuser 2.7 1.0 0.5 1.9 2.3 0.9 2.1 2.00 4.00 6.6

DONALD STRASZHEIM Straszheim Global Advisors 2.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.4 1.7 2.25 5.50 7.0

JOHN POPE Investment Economics 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.1 0.1 3.3 2.05 5.70 6.5

CONSENSUS 1.1% 0.4% 2.3% 3.4% 3.7% 2.5% 2.2% 2.7% 5.2% 6.1%


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