) to hold from buy.
Analyst Mara Goldstein says the non-approval letter for parecoxib, an injectable COX-2 inhibitor for pain relief, is a major disappointment as the drug was projected to be a big growth driver in 2002 and 2003.
Goldstein notes the launch will be delayed from this year to mid-2003, at the earliest. She says prior estimates include $250M in parecoxib sales in 2002. She cut the $2.10 2002 EPS estimate to $1.94 and thinks the optimistic forecast is for shares to trade at a 10% premium to the S&P 500 on 2002, suggesting a value of $44.
Goldstein thinks investors should switch into Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY
) (strong buy, target $70), and American Home Products (AHP
) (buy, $70) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ
) (buy, $105).