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The Sheepskin Paradox


Economic Trends

THE SHEEPSKIN PARADOX

College grads in lower-level jobs

In recent years, a seeming paradox has bedeviled discussions regarding the labor-market prospects of college graduates: On the one hand, a number of researchers have found that many grads are winding up in jobs previously held by those with a high school diploma--a worrisome prospect to students and their parents who have borrowed heavily and shelled out hard-earned dollars to secure the vaunted economic benefits of a college degree. Indeed, according to one Labor Dept. projection, the growing supply of college grads could outstrip growth in demand by as much as 330,000 annually by 2005.

On the other hand, the wage gap between high school and college grads continues to widen and has recently been running as high as 60% to 70%. While a major reason for this has been a decline in the real wages of less educated workers, the real wages of college graduates have also posted modest growth.

The problem with these two trends is that they seem inconsistent from an economic perspective. If college grads have been flooding the job market, boosting supply relative to demand, why haven't their wages been falling? That's the question addressed by Frederic L. Pryor of Swarthmore College and David Schaffer of Haverford College in a study in the latest issue of the Monthly Labor Review and in a forthcoming book Who's Not Working And Why.

To find the answer, the two economists analyzed data from several surveys, including a 1992 canvas of some 20,000 U.S. adults that focused on cognitive skills. They found that it was not just possession of a college degree that determined a graduate's employment or salary, but his or her functional literacy. "Many college graduates," says Pryor, "simply lack the reading, writing, and mathematical skills to solve problems that are supposed to go with a college education."

Those with such skills, the researchers found, are indeed in short supply and continue to find high-paying jobs. Since the early 1970s, in fact, the average real wages of this group have risen by a healthy 20% to 25%.

At the same time, however, the complaint about downward mobility rings true. Since the early 1970s, a rising share of university-educated workers have wound up with high school level jobs (although recently this trend has been leveling off) and have faced stagnant or declining real wages. But this group on average turns out to have considerably lower "functional literacy" than other university graduates.

In sum, it is the skills college grads bring to the labor market, not their sheepskins, that determine their economic fate. "The shortage of qualified college graduates is real," says Pryor, "but the key word is `qualified."'BY GENE KORETZReturn to top

JOB SECURITY IS NOT ENOUGH

A call for fairer treatment by bosses

Concern about job security, the focus of worker anxiety in the 1990s, appears to be waning. According to a Towers Perrin nationwide survey of some 2,500 U.S. workers in late 1996, just 44% said their company had gone through a downsizing in the past two years, vs. 61% in the firm's early-1995 survey. More important, over half (51%) felt they were likely to retire from their company, compared with 46% in 1995.

Indeed, overall job satisfaction rose sharply by 14 percentage points between 1995 and 1996. And the percentage of employees who think their companies will provide advancement opportunities climbed from 45% to 54%.

The bad news is that fewer workers believe their abilities and performance are fairly rewarded and recognized. For example, only 41% felt that employers considered their interests, down from 50% in 1995. And those who deem promotions fair fell from 51% to 45%.

The Towers Perrin survey also underscored the strong link between pay and motivation. Some 85% of respondents who felt their salary was better than it would be at other companies said they were motivated to help their company succeed. But only 69% of those who felt their pay was worse expressed such sentiments.BY GENE KORETZReturn to top


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