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Cover Story: Where To Invest '96: The Investment Scoreboard: Earnings Outlook
TABLE: A Menu of Investment Opportunities
Be careful. Although the numbers seem enticing, usually high or low percentages
may be a sign of trouble.
High Hopes For Earnings
These companies' earnings are forecast to move smartly in 1996.
PERCENT
CHANGE 1995-96
WESTERN GAS RESOURCES 600%
MERISEL 556
RYLAND GROUP 500
FHP INTERNATIONAL 424
CROWN CENTRAL PETROLEUM 400
BURLINGTON RESOURCES 339
ROADWAY SERVICES 337
PENN TRAFFIC 337
FREEPORT-McMORAN 300
HUNT (J.B.) TRANSPORT 268
Stocks The Institutions Rarely hold
Unpopular--or just overlooked? Either way, if the institutions suddenly take
notice, prices could rise.
PERCENT OF SHARES NUMBER OF
HELD BY INSTITUTIONS HOLDING
AMERCO 1% 10
MIDAMERICAN ENERGY 1 15
FREEPORT-McMORAN 1 18
COPPER & GOLD
MICRON ELECTRONICS 2 29
VALHI 3 33
COOPER CAMERON 5 7
SPIEGEL 5 60
FOOD LION 5 91
LINCOLN ELECTRIC 6 13
COMPUCOM SYSTEMS 6 32
AVERAGE OF 900 COMPANIES 57 363
Companies With The Highest Yield
These companies pay the highest annual dividends as a percent of stock price.
PERCENT
POLARIS INDUSTRIES 18.3%
NIAGARA MOHAWK POWER 11.3
LONG ISLAND LIGHTING 10.4
CENTERIOR ENERGY 8.3
NORTHEAST UTILITIES 7.4
PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP 7.3
PACIFIC TELESIS GROUP 7.3
MIDAMERICAN ENERGY 7.2
BROWN GROUP 7.1
PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC 7.1
Stocks Selling Way Below Book Value
Bargain-hunters, take note. The stock price of these companies as a percentage
of book is very low.
PERCENT
CALDOR 20%
BRADLEES 22
VENTURE STORES 27
WHX 34
BAKER (J.) 38
PAYLESS CASHWAYS 40
CHARMING SHOPPES 40
HECHINGER 42
AVIALL 53
CROWN CENTRAL PETROLEUM 54
DATA: AS OF NOV. 30, I/ B/ E/S INTERNATIONAL INC., STANDARD & POOR'S
COMPUSTAT, A DIVISION OF THE McGRAW-HILL COS.
The Lowest Price-Earnings Ratios
Prices of these stocks compared with 1996 earnings may suggest unrecognized
values.
RATIO
CALDOR 1.5
STONE CONTAINER 3.6
COLLINS & AIKMAN 3.9
BRADLEES 4.0
JEFFERSON SMURFIT 4.4
BOWATER 4.7
WICKES LUMBER 4.8
CHAMPION INTERNATIONAL 5.2
WEIRTON STEEL 5.4
ZEIGLER COAL HOLDING 5.5
Where Forecasters Disagree The Most
Uncertainty could spell opportunity. The 1996 earnings-per-share estimates are
all over the lot for these stocks. For example: Estimates for Time Warner range
from a profit of $0.43 to a loss of $1.02.
CONSENSUS FOR 1996 VARIATION
CENTS PER SHARE IN FORECASTS
TELE-COMMUNICATIONS -2 850%
ZENITH ELECTRONICS 10 570
NATIONAL STEEL 66 255
CHARMING SHOPPES 4 225
HOST MARRIOTT 4 200
COMCAST -11 191
MORRISON KNUDSEN -8 138
TIME WARNER -29 131
YELLOW 46 91
MAXTOR 43 88