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Bill Clinton, Foreign Policy President


International Business: FOREIGN POLICY

BILL CLINTON, FOREIGN POLICY PRESIDENT

Bill Clinton's whirlwind schedule in New York signaled his unlikely transformation into a foreign policy President. On Oct. 22, the domestic policy maven addressed more than 140 world leaders to celebrate the U.N.'s 50th anniversary. Then came an upbeat round of tte-a-ttes with heads of state, from Russia's Boris Yeltsin and China's Jiang Zemin to Ethiopia's Meles Zenawi and Slovenia's Janez Drnovsek.

The gabfest comes on the heels of a string of successes: the Sept. 28 Middle East peace pact, the Oct. 5 cease-fire in Bosnia, and reduced tensions with China. After years of foreign policy fumbling, the winning streak has boosted the President's team. "Their general performance has enhanced the Administration's reputation," says one European diplomat.

But are the triumphs ephemeral? The same people who stumbled earlier--Secretary of State Warren M. Christopher and National Security Adviser Anthony Lake--remain in charge. The White House has no global framework for decision-making. And earlier Administrations paved the way for Clinton successes on the Middle East, the North American Free Trade Agreement, and a world trade accord. "Where the structure and framework were set, the Administration hasn't done badly," sniffs Robert B. Zoellick, a former GOP State Dept. strategist.

The Administration concedes that its global gambits don't stem from a grand strategy. Decisions these days have to be made without "the kind of framework the bipolar cold-war world provided for so many years," Clinton said in an Oct. 6 speech. He called instead for a policy "based on trial and error and persistent experimentation."

Sometimes that strategy means sidestepping real problems. There were smiles and embraces galore when Clinton greeted Yeltsin amid the autumn pastels at Franklin D. Roosevelt's elegant summer White House in Hyde Park, N.Y. But the Oct. 23 feel-good meeting glossed over one of the most contentious and critical issues: whether NATO should be expanded to include former Soviet satellites such as Poland.

To its credit, the White House does appear to be trying to exercise real leadership on the world stage--beyond just posturing to domestic constituencies. Like many Presidents, Clinton is finding that he has largely unfettered clout in world affairs--a welcome respite from the domestic agenda the Republicans now dominate.

It was the Bosnia breakthrough that made it clear the Clintonites are determined to play a leadership role--and are ready to do so by sending troops to follow through on peace negotiations. "It would be ignoble to walk away," declares a senior Administration official.

NO PAYOFF. To stay on a winning path, the Administration will need a stiff spine in the months ahead. It is demanding that China commit to more market-opening concessions before joining the World Trade Organization. The U.S. is pushing ahead with NATO expansion despite Moscow's strenuous opposition. And hotheads could derail the peace processes in the Mideast and Bosnia. Putting troops in harm's way is "a very serious political risk," frets Democratic consultant Mark S. Mellman.

Strangely enough, even if the Administration handles all these issues deftly, there may be little political payoff at home. A late-October USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll shows that despite the favorable foreign policy headlines, Clinton's approval rating, at 49%, is still below his 51% approval in May.

Republican and Democratic pollsters say foreign policy can be a big negative for Clinton if he looks feckless, but it can never be a big plus because voters have tuned out foreign policy. If the Administration handles coming challenges adroitly, however, it just might be able to remove doubts that Clinton, after long being at sea, has finally found his foreign policy legs.

CLINTON HAS SCORED SOME POLICY WINS...

-- Brokered Middle East peace pact

-- Achieved progress toward Bosnian cease-fire

-- Reduced tensions with China, Japan

-- Helped stabilize Mexico's financial system

...BUT FACES CHALLENGES

-- Should NATO be expanded despite Russian objections?

-- Will rival armies derail Bosnian peace?

-- Should China be admitted to World Trade Organization?

-- Will Quebec independence spark a Canadian breakup?

DATA: BUSINESS WEEKBy Stan Crock in Hyde Park, N.Y.


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