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Business Week Index: The Week Ahead


Business Week Index: THE WEEK AHEAD

BusinessWeek Index: THE WEEK AHEAD

PERSONAL INCOME

Monday, July 3, 8:30 a.m. -- Personal income likely fell by 0.1% in May, says

the median forecast of economists surveyed by MMS International, one of the

McGraw-Hill Cos. If so, that would be the first decline in income in 11/2

years. Income rose 0.3% in April. A drop in payrolls suggests that wages and

salaries were weak in May. Consumer spending likely rose 0.5% in May, after a

0.3% advance in April.

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING

Monday, July 3, 8:30 a.m. -- Outlays for building projects were probably

unchanged in May. That's suggested by the drops in housing starts and

construction jobs for the month. Spending rose by 0.4% in April, but had

declined in each of the previous three months.

NAPM SURVEY

Monday, July 3, 10 a.m. -- The National Association of Purchasing Management's

business index likely stood at 47% in June, following a 46.1% reading in May,

according to the MMS survey. Both levels would be below the 50% mark,

suggesting that industry is contracting.

LEADING INDICATORS

Thursday, July 6, 8:30 a.m. -- The government's composite index of leading

indicators probably fell by 0.2% in May. Rising unemployment claims and no

change in the factory workweek contributed to the weakness. The index has not

risen since December, 1994. In April, it fell a steep 0.6%, raising talk of a

coming recession.

EMPLOYMENT

Friday, July 7, 8:30 a.m. -- The MMS survey calls for a 125,000 gain in nonfarm

payrolls in June. That would more than recoup the surprising 101,000 decline in

jobs in May. Manufacturing, however, is expected to continue paring payrolls.

The MMS economists expect factory job losses to total 10,000, on top of 56,000

layoffs in May. The June unemployment rate probably rose to 5.8%, from 5.7% in

May.


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